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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Silsbee who wrote (2683)	11/7/1997 12:16:00 PM
From: Steve Childs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Question to anyone: Does AGPH have any drug beyond Phase I aside from AG337?

To: Peter Silsbee who wrote (2683)	11/7/1997 4:59:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

You are right. After thinking about it they do conflict. My thought was that Viracept is there only product that will facilitate the continued development of the pipeline. If Viracept's continued growth continues, then the intrinsic value of the company (their technology and the pipeline) will appear in the stock price. I guess in a sense then Viracept could be the same as Agouron's future since the drug had to be a hit for the survival of the company, and therefore the statements are contradictory. However, it is my opinion that Viracept has surpassed the company's own expectations and protease inhibitor mkt will continue to grow in the next 3-5 yrs. The future of the company is secured and the major risk on the ability of Viracept to be marketed and compete has been overcomed.

To: Peter Silsbee who wrote (2683)	11/9/1997 12:42:00 AM
From: Joe E.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6136

Re your note to John W. : << (1) "Anyone who shares David Crossen's view on the lifespan of Viracept which at this time is their only marketed drug is negative on the company's fundamentals." (2) "It would appear a lot of people on these threads are investing/or shorting Viracept not Agouron Pharmaceuticals. Viracept is only the first chapter of Agourons story. Yeah, it is a great beggining...but the huge profits will be in the future. " Were these two comments really written by the same person? >> In the above you quoted two of John W.'s posts and then asked the final question. Subsequently John replied. (Reply not quoted here). In the interests of exploring how much of the value of AGPH is in Viracept and how much is in the drug pipeline, I looked at my valuation model. I calculate a fair value of AGPH at $55 right now (LMoss likes $148 or so for the current value). But using my valuation model, and looking at AGPH without Viracept, I get a current value of $31. So I get AGPH value as 44% Viracept and 56% pipeline. My valuation model has Viracept with a long life, with Viracept sales peaking in fiscal 2000 at $1.1 billion, and slowly declining after that. So John W.'s notes are not at all inconsistent, at least to me. BTW, as a result of the very kind feedback from the annual meeting attendees, I adjusted the valuation model and as a result the fair value of AGPH came down about $1.50, to the $55 mentioned above, mostly due to the European approval delay. Also BTW, for those interested in watching somebody make foolish short term predictions, I predict AGPH will trade above $47.50 by Thursday. As always no refunds or even sympathy for those misled by my opinions.