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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (5319)	7/2/2010 1:28:41 AM
From: marc ultra	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

<Most recent Investor's Intelligence figures report 41.1% of advisors are BULLS and 33.3% are BEARS - I see no extremes here. By the methodology of the Investor's Intelligence Survey I believe there there is a built in bias toward more net bulls. Getting a majority of net bears is infrequent. Also it tends not to have violent swings like other surveys. If you look at the methodology it's apparent why that is: "If the Advisor has a list of stocks to buy now, they are bullish; if they say sell everything and raise cash they are bearish; if they show a list of stocks to buy, but at lower prices, they are judged as “correction" So basically you have to say sell everything and not recommend any stocks to make it into the bearish category. With that, the fact is we've fallen precipitously from 75% net bulls on 5/5 down to 55% net bulls now. Also more sensitive surveys like Hulbert does where he actually looks how long or short the newsletter allocation is has had virtually a historically rapid reversal from extreme bullishness to extreme bearishness. The total Put/Call ratio has been mostly over 1 for a while which is also consistent with extreme bearish sentiment. While I don't closely follow the AAII survey I see it's at a little over 27% bulls and 42% bears. This is in a time when we haven't even been a bear market yet so I think bearish sentiment is extreme enough at the moment and I would certainly put that in as bullish for the market right now.

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (5319)	7/2/2010 1:41:49 AM
From: marc ultra	2 Recommendations Respond to of 10065

< Call me crazy, but I also recently added some shares of VZ, UNG, and TBT. I owned some of that TBT earlier in the year but sold at a small profit when the Dubai issue came up and I wanted the money to invest elsewhere. Betting against the long bond was a crowded trade that turned out miserably for those who have been holding it. I certainly like it down here at a 52 week low and would be buying if I had a bunch of cash sitting around and wasn't up to my eyeballs in stocks at the moment waiting for this correction to end. I guess the other issue with TBT is because it's 2beta leveraged short the 20 year bond equivalent you do have the usual issue of how well these leveraged funds are tracking their benchmark but it's not meant for a very long term buy and hold anyway.