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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (258262)	7/2/2010 8:17:50 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I think we've got 6-9 months of deflationary burning first, but who knows? As you say, when it turns it will likely be violent, as will the move in long treasuries.

To: bentway who wrote (258262)	7/2/2010 9:21:32 PM
From: koan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

>>I want to be in gold when it goes straight up. All we need are more job losses, currency degradation and malaise - then, have some seminal event happen..<< I agree and keep live gold stock options. The siminal event could be the bombing of Iran and oil going to $200. Absent that, my guess as to the scenario: The four big players are the US, Europe, China and India. The US and Europe are broke and face deflation while China and India have inflation problems. They screwed up the real estate problem, IMO, and the stimulus package. Both Stiglits and Krugman told Obama it was too small and they would not b able ot go back for more; and both said they should have run the money through the mortgage market and home owners and then to the banks. So now, we face a downturn which could turn into a deflationary spiral (people just quit spending and start saving), which they will try to stop by printing money. They will not risk deflation. They did that in 1937 and it was a disaster. or as you say a siminal even could do it.$200 oil would sure put the world into a deep depression and inflation. Stagflation. I always thought we would end up with stagflation anyway. LIke after LBJ's guns and butter trip. Except this time there will be no Volker raisng prime to 18% to stop it.

To: bentway who wrote (258262)	7/3/2010 9:07:00 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Re: I want to be in gold when it goes straight up. Timing is always hard. The politics are very different, now, so there is very limited relevance to the way the POG acts now, but we can look at what happened in '29 to '32. The POG basically stayed at $20.65 from 1833 to 1930 (it was, of course, fixed) but when the economy dipped a second time in '31, people began dumping gold for things like food and shelter. . . . 1928 - 20.66 1929 - 20.63 1930 - 20.65 1931 - 17.06 1932 - 20.69 1933 - 26.33 1934 - 34.69 1935 - 34.84 . . . Basically stayed at the same price until 1970 (no surprise, the POG was fixed), then jumped to $612 by 1980. So where are we, economically, on that curve? If we have a double dip, there will probably be a pull back in the POG. Given that gold is now market priced, it may be a much bigger dip (amazing that the "fixed" price dropped - and worth carefully considering). kitco.com GDP was dropping steadily until 32/33. When GDP stabilized, the POG did too, but it's important to note that POG was fixed during this period. It was only a "market" price when POG collapsed in 1931 and after it was allowed to float in 1970: GDP 1929 103.6 1930 91.2 1931 76.5 1932 58.7 1933 56.4 1934 66.0 1935 73.3 bea.gov