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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ChinuSFO who wrote (79056)7/3/2010 1:10:46 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 149317
 
WHAT THEY DON'T KNOW CAN HURT THEM....

Evidence of an "enthusiasm gap" between Democratic and Republican voters is hardly new, though it may prove to be one of the year's most important campaign dynamics. Recently, the trend became even more evident.

Gallup's latest poll measuring partisan enthusiasm not only showed Republicans with a sizable advantage, but found that excitement among GOP voters has reached a level with no modern precedent.

This week's report from the Pew Research Center found a similar partisan landscape: "Fully 56 percent of Republican voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections -- the highest percentage of GOP voters expressing increased enthusiasm about voting in midterms dating back to 1994.... The Republican Party now holds about the same advantage in enthusiasm among its party's voters that the Democratic Party held in June 2006 and the GOP had late in the 1994 campaign."

And 1994 proved to be a rather consequential year, as I recall.

But to me, that wasn't the most interesting part. This was. (via Suzy Khimm)

...Democratic voters this year are not particularly pessimistic about the election: 29 percent expect the Democrats to do better in this year's midterm, far more than the percentage of GOP voters who said that four years ago (16 percent). Nearly half of Democratic voters (48 percent) expect the party to do about the same this fall as in recent elections, while just 18 percent say it will do worse.

Wait, wait, wait. Democratic voters aren't nervous?


This is, of course, just one poll, and I haven't seen other outlets asking the same question, so it's hard to say with certainty just how widespread these attitudes really are.

But the Pew Research Center is a fairly reliable outlet, and if its reporting on this is accurate, it's really important.

Democratic candidates excelled in 2006, and had another terrific cycle in 2008. It's certainly possible that Pew's data is correct -- Democratic voters just don't realize, at least not yet, that the party's gains can entirely disappear this November, giving enormous power to an increasingly radicalized Republican Party.

If less than a fifth of Democratic voters expect Dems to do worse in 2010 than in recent elections, the party has no choice but to make the stakes clear.


To put it mildly, there's a very plausible chance the Democrats will lose their House majority; control of the Senate is in play; and there's no shortage of important gubernatorial races and ballot initiatives. There's also the consequential matter of post-Census redistricting -- the more Republicans are elected to state legislatures, the more lines will be redrawn to help GOP congressional candidates.

Republican voters, according to multiple polls, are practically counting the days until November, almost desperate to elect far-right candidates. If rank-and-file Dems seriously believe their party is positioned to do well -- indeed, if nearly a third of these Dems expect the party's candidates to do better than usual -- they're living in a fantasy world.

The awakening next January will likely be a rude one -- intractable gridlock, endless and pointless investigations, and a progressive policy agenda brought to an immediate halt. Hell, presidential impeachment might even find itself on the table.

This expectations problem is not lost on party leaders.


Architects of President Obama's 2008 victory are braced for potentially sizable Democratic losses in November's midterm elections. But they say voters' unease about a GOP takeover will help their party maintain congressional majorities.

"I think the prospect of a Republican takeover -- while not likely, but plausible -- will be very much part of the dynamic in October, and I think that will help us with turnout and some of this enthusiasm gap," said David Plouffe, who was Obama's campaign manager two years ago and is helping to oversee Democratic efforts this fall. Still, he put all Democrats on notice, saying: "We'd better act as a party as if the House and the Senate and every major governor's race is at stake and in danger, because they could be."

That sounds about right. If Democratic voters realize that a radicalized GOP is poised to make significant gains in November, Dems are more likely to show up to prevent that from happening. The combination of Democratic successes -- breakthrough legislation on health care, student loans, Wall Street safeguards, etc. -- and Republican hysteria seems like a capable antidote to the enthusiasm gap.

But that means the party has quite a bit of educating to do over the next four months, because if Pew's research is correct, the Democratic rank-and-file has no idea how devastating the elections might be.



To: ChinuSFO who wrote (79056)7/3/2010 1:18:16 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 149317
 
Bullish Signals From G.M. and Toyota

By NICK BUNKLEY
Published: June 17, 2010

DETROIT — Two of the world’s largest automakers signaled confidence in the economic recovery on Thursday, with Toyota announcing it would resume construction of a long-delayed plant in Mississippi and General Motors increasing output at most of its American operations.

Toyota said it would hire 2,000 workers to start building Corolla compact cars at its $1.3 billion plant in Blue Springs, Miss., by the fall of 2011. The plant was 90 percent complete when Toyota halted work on it 18 months ago amid slumping sales across the industry.

G.M. said nine of its 11 assembly plants in this country would skip the regular two-week summer shutdown, which was to start later this month. The plants will remain open to build 56,000 additional vehicles, particularly new models that have been in short supply at many dealerships, the company said.

Analysts said the two announcements reflected the growing optimism among carmakers that the worst was over for the auto industry. Over all, car sales in the United States fell 35 percent from 2007 to 2009, with 10.4 million vehicles sold last year compared with 16.1 million in 2007. But in the first five months this year, sales showed the start of a rebound, rising 17 percent.

“We have a long way to go,” said John Wolkonowicz, a senior auto analyst with the research company IHS Global Insight. “But the level in the lake is rising, and most manufacturers are going to rise with it. You’re going to see a lot more overtime and a lot of this standard vacation time not being taken.”

Toyota said its sales were improving both as a result of a strengthening economy and its efforts to overcome the damage done to its reputation by recalls of about nine million vehicles worldwide since November.

“We’re confident that we’re seeing things improving,” James E. Lentz, president of Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A., said on a conference call.

“We’re starting to see some bright spots in the economy,” Mr. Lentz added, but cautioned, “It’s not going to come roaring back.”

The Ford Motor Company’s chief market analyst, George Pipas, said Ford had already increased output to meet demand and still had two weeks of down time scheduled at its United States plants, though not all plants would shut down at the same time or in consecutive weeks.

Ford, whose sales are up 30 percent so far this year, previously said it was increasing production by 42 percent in the second quarter and 16 percent in the third quarter compared with levels a year earlier.

“The economy’s recovering, but almost every day we get mixed signals,” Mr. Pipas said. “It seems like the economy takes a couple steps forward and then a couple steps backward.”

The summer plant shutdown is a tradition among the Detroit automakers, which in past years used the down time to prepare assembly lines to make the next year’s models. Today the practice is more of a union-negotiated perk than a necessity; G.M. said its contract with the United Automobile Workers gave it the flexibility to cancel a companywide shutdown.

G.M. said it might need to use some temporary workers as it operated the assembly plants for the two extra weeks.

“Our manufacturing teams are taking creative approaches to increase production and reduce the wait times for our dealers and customers,” Mark I. Reuss, president of G.M. North America, said in a statement.

Toyota’s decision to assemble the Corolla in Mississippi means it no longer has any near-term plans to build Prius hybrid cars in North America.

Since mid-2008, Toyota had been saying it would make the Prius at the Mississippi plant when it opened, but demand for hybrids has fallen sharply as gas prices have ebbed. When it was announced in 2007, the plant was to build Highlander sport utility vehicles.

Mr. Lentz said Toyota had enough production capacity in Japan to meet demand for the Prius. Two years ago, many dealers had few Prius models, and some sold the car for thousands of dollars above sticker price. For 2010, Prius sales in the United States were down 31 percent through May compared with the same period of 2008.

“As soon as global supply falls short of global demand, I’m sure we’ll take a look at what we can do here in the U.S.,” he said. “Today what’s most important is that we bring North American production of the Corolla back.”

Toyota stopped building the Corolla in the United States in April, when it closed a plant in Fremont, Calif. That plant, known as New United Motor Manufacturing Inc., or Nummi, had been a joint venture with G.M. until it withdrew after filing for bankruptcy protection last year.

Toyota now plans to reopen the California plant in partnership with another automaker, Tesla, to build electric cars, but it will be a much smaller operation.

The plan to move production of the Corolla, one of Toyota’s top-selling vehicles, from the California plant, where workers were represented by the United Automobile Workers union, to the new Mississippi plant, where workers will not be represented by a union, drew harsh words on Thursday from the U.A.W.’s new president, Bob King.

“It’s outrageous. It’s a terrible business decision and clearly to us an anti-union decision,” Mr. King said at his first news conference since being elected on Wednesday. “They’re running away from decently paid workers to much lower wages in Mississippi.”

Mr. King, who this year joined picket lines against closing the California plant, said he would discuss the matter with the Obama administration.

Mr. King is fighting to ensure that Toyota and Tesla rehire U.A.W. workers, and the labor secretary, Hilda L. Solis, told delegates at the U.A.W. convention here that the laid-off workers should be given first priority for the new jobs.

More than 4,500 workers lost their jobs when the California plant, Toyota’s only unionized factory, closed.

nytimes.com



To: ChinuSFO who wrote (79056)7/4/2010 11:25:26 AM
From: SiouxPal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 149317
 
Excellent commentary.