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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ahhaha who wrote (17342)7/5/2010 9:02:57 PM
From: Real ManRespond to of 24758
 
Irrational or not, gold secular bulls typically end in epic
manias like one in 1979. It is difficult to argue that
5-fold increase for gold since 2001 is a bull. I think
we are just in the beginning stage of that, some think
otherwise. Gold manias are characterized by hoarding behavior
due to bad economic times, and gold is traditionally an asset,
a "commodity currency", held by central banks and in private
hands. Many folks hoard more practical items, such
as guns, farm land and food cans, but gold tends to go up as
well. <g>

In other words, during the 3-d and final leg of the gold bull
market gold is no longer a commodity, it's an asset, purchased
by investors. Something we are witnessing right now, with
30-40% of total annual demand coming from investors.

I don't know when it ends, but gold is still too low
for the end of the secular bull move by multiple measures.
My guess is 3-5K within 3-5 years is where the gold bull ends.



To: ahhaha who wrote (17342)7/5/2010 9:45:16 PM
From: Real ManRespond to of 24758
 
Soros just wants to make a buck or two, or more.

So, he says gold is in a "bubble". A correct statement.
Gold is no longer a commodity and is driven by investor
demand. The question is, how long the "bubble" lasts?

The answer to that question will surprise many gold haters,
but, in the end, it will be given by Mr. Market. I am not
particularly sure how to value gold in this terminal stage
of the secular bull or how to predict how long or how high it
flies. -g-