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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (258986)	7/7/2010 12:55:43 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Ok...

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (258986)	7/28/2010 9:12:47 PM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 306849

Probably 30% more down and 1 in 4 houses empty, IMO.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (258986)	7/28/2010 10:58:25 PM
From: morokko65	Respond to of 306849

I could see another 15% to 20% here in my region of Northern California. Some of the most resilient markets so far (Marin, San Mateo, westside Santa Clara) may play catch up due to demographics going forward. Many empty nesters in those markets with older homes looking to downsize and/or move to retirement areas (Tahoe, Sierra foothills, wine country, out of state, etc). We've already shed 5% in the last 90 days after a pretty impressive rebound from the abyss of March/April 2009 Those resilient areas were more affluent and tended towards 5-year ARMs at the peak, rather than the inland areas which took on riskier loans and folded their cards earlier. Folks who squeaked by in 2007-2009 have eaten up some of their savings/asset cushion, and are starting to worry. Even if we don't get a double dip, the psychology will sure feel like one. There is a real sense of dread in the affluent areas now that the 12-14 month rebound has fizzled out