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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (259463)7/8/2010 11:52:40 PM
From: PerspectiveRespond to of 306849
 
Hussman for president. Or perhaps this man should be pulling the levers at the Fed (if he would pull levers at all.)

I think this is his best missive ever. Not his usual analysis and pointing out of government folly, but actual positive ideas for the *right* way to do things. Send an excerpt to your congressional delegation. Seriously.

And staple it to the forehead of that g*ddamned Krugman...

hussmanfunds.com

Crafting a Package

Once we begin to ask these additional questions, we immediately open up important policy options to that might reasonably be included in an (inevitable) stimulus package. While this may seem incomprehensible given the low political tolerance for deficits at the moment, we have yet to see a case where fiscal responsibility trumps perceived crisis. Fresh economic weakness is unlikely to be kind to the housing market, the credit market, or the employment market. The weak underpinnings in the private economy may not absorb new pressures well.

If individuals are attempting to increase saving, and Keynesians view this as undesirable, an obvious but underutilized response is to promote productive investment through tax incentives, R&D credits, and other means. Private sector investments are often well-beyond the planning stages, and may provide a quick road to immediate economic activity in response to incentives that move their timing forward. We should not overlook productive forms of government-funded non-profit research. Among those avenues, one might consider restoring funding to the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation, both which have historically been successful in advancing innovation and producing major discoveries in public health and technology.

We might also consider investments that cannot be easily made privately due to coordination failure. Various forms of public infrastructure, particularly those that increase the efficiency of large numbers of individuals (roadways, telecommunications) have been shown to have a good payoff over time in terms of output, relative to the cost of those investments.
In contrast, one might view "rural broadband" as somewhat questionable, precisely because of the relatively high cost per beneficiary. In a challenging downturn such as this one, where the duration of economic difficulty may be extended, some amount of infrastructure expense makes sense. In contrast, during most post-war recessions, these have been difficult to coordinate on a timely basis.

In any case, numerous moderate investment-like projects - including infrastructure, research, alternative energy projects, and so forth - are more likely to be effective than massive "pick the winner" approaches, not only because technology is usually too dynamic to pick a winner correctly, but also because the marginal returns from massive expenditure tend to diminish quickly. If the Keynesian problem is increased saving, the natural response should include incentives to initiate real, physical investment and research (not simply tax cuts on investment income). Moreover, projects having the capacity to spread their effects over a large number of beneficiaries should be heavily preferred to projects having a high cost per beneficiary. This should be obvious, but concentrated pork and bridges to nowhere are strikingly common.

Finally, in an economy likely to push 12% unemployment, a compassionate society ought to consider extended - if tapering - unemployment compensation as a necessary "counter-cyclical" element of fiscal policy, at least in my opinion.

In any event, we should be thinking not in terms of brute "stimulus" here, but rather should be thinking in a more nuanced way about incentives, productivity, and resource allocation. Government spending is not one monolithic "G" but is instead comprised of countless projects with very different productivities and long-term consequences. If we abandon all of that subtlety and simply call for government to spend, we can be certain that the spending will benefit those who are best connected to the policy makers doing the spending.

`BC



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (259463)7/9/2010 3:17:35 AM
From: DebtBombRespond to of 306849
 
LMAO. Somehow....lunatics got power....and surrounded themselves with others just like them. They are dug in deep baby. There's no way out now.
'There's no easy way out....there's no short-cuts home.'



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (259463)7/9/2010 5:46:04 AM
From: DebtBombRespond to of 306849
 
Web Bot predictions for 2010. Coast to Coast AM - 2010 and beyond Web Bot Predictions Part 1 of 12

George Ure & Clif High presented predictions about the economy, and U.S. and world events for the summer of 2010 and beyond. Their predictions are based on High's Web Bot technology which gives archetype descriptors of future events by tracking language pattern changes within Internet discussions forums. Here are some of the highlights of what they see coming:

•No warfare between Israel and Iran, at least not until November.
•Six very large earthquakes are yet to come during the rest of 2010.
•A major tipping point will occur between November 8th 11th, 2010, followed by a 2-3 month release period. This tipping point appears to be US-centric, and could be a dramatic world-changing
event like 9-11 that will have rippling after-effects. The collapse of the dollar might occur in November.
•From July 8th, 2010 onward, civil unrest will take place, possibly driven by food prices skyrocketing, and the devaluation of the dollar.
•A second depression, triggered by mass layoffs, bankruptcies, and the popping of the "derivatives bubble," will see people moving out of cities.
•After March 2011, the revolution wave will settle down into a period of reformation.
•A "data gap" has been found between early 2012 running through May 2013. One explanation is that "our civilization gets knocked back to a pre-electronic state," such as brought about by devastating solar activity.
•A new benign form of capitalism will emerge during 2017-2020.

december212012.com