To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (259463 ) 7/8/2010 11:52:40 PM From: Perspective Respond to of 306849 Hussman for president. Or perhaps this man should be pulling the levers at the Fed (if he would pull levers at all.) I think this is his best missive ever. Not his usual analysis and pointing out of government folly, but actual positive ideas for the *right* way to do things. Send an excerpt to your congressional delegation. Seriously. And staple it to the forehead of that g*ddamned Krugman...hussmanfunds.com Crafting a Package Once we begin to ask these additional questions, we immediately open up important policy options to that might reasonably be included in an (inevitable) stimulus package. While this may seem incomprehensible given the low political tolerance for deficits at the moment, we have yet to see a case where fiscal responsibility trumps perceived crisis. Fresh economic weakness is unlikely to be kind to the housing market, the credit market, or the employment market. The weak underpinnings in the private economy may not absorb new pressures well.If individuals are attempting to increase saving, and Keynesians view this as undesirable, an obvious but underutilized response is to promote productive investment through tax incentives, R&D credits, and other means. Private sector investments are often well-beyond the planning stages, and may provide a quick road to immediate economic activity in response to incentives that move their timing forward. We should not overlook productive forms of government-funded non-profit research. Among those avenues, one might consider restoring funding to the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation, both which have historically been successful in advancing innovation and producing major discoveries in public health and technology. We might also consider investments that cannot be easily made privately due to coordination failure. Various forms of public infrastructure, particularly those that increase the efficiency of large numbers of individuals (roadways, telecommunications) have been shown to have a good payoff over time in terms of output, relative to the cost of those investments. In contrast, one might view "rural broadband" as somewhat questionable, precisely because of the relatively high cost per beneficiary. In a challenging downturn such as this one, where the duration of economic difficulty may be extended, some amount of infrastructure expense makes sense. In contrast, during most post-war recessions, these have been difficult to coordinate on a timely basis. In any case, numerous moderate investment-like projects - including infrastructure, research, alternative energy projects, and so forth - are more likely to be effective than massive "pick the winner" approaches, not only because technology is usually too dynamic to pick a winner correctly, but also because the marginal returns from massive expenditure tend to diminish quickly. If the Keynesian problem is increased saving, the natural response should include incentives to initiate real, physical investment and research (not simply tax cuts on investment income). Moreover, projects having the capacity to spread their effects over a large number of beneficiaries should be heavily preferred to projects having a high cost per beneficiary. This should be obvious, but concentrated pork and bridges to nowhere are strikingly common. Finally, in an economy likely to push 12% unemployment, a compassionate society ought to consider extended - if tapering - unemployment compensation as a necessary "counter-cyclical" element of fiscal policy, at least in my opinion. In any event, we should be thinking not in terms of brute "stimulus" here, but rather should be thinking in a more nuanced way about incentives, productivity, and resource allocation. Government spending is not one monolithic "G" but is instead comprised of countless projects with very different productivities and long-term consequences. If we abandon all of that subtlety and simply call for government to spend, we can be certain that the spending will benefit those who are best connected to the policy makers doing the spending. `BC