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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (38489)	7/11/2010 12:51:19 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78748

re NOK - I am aware of the fact that the North American phone market is an anomaly on the world and NOK position is much stronger elsewhere. In the US NOK seems to have lost the war totally and is almost no-existing. The buzz is around the IPhone but increasingly with the Android phones. it does seem that GOOG has created a real winner with the Android OS and I think it will take over Nokia's Symbian. I do think that the whole phone market is going to be an entire new game - with winners and loosers. NOK looks like a looser but they may be able to hold onto more market share than their lousy stock price suggest. For me, that's a hard bet to make, since I see so much competition - a myriad of Android phones (new names like HTC, GOOG), Palm may be revived by HP, incumbent RIM and of course the IPhone. My most likely outcome for NOK is that it will become a value trap.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (38489)	7/14/2010 4:58:59 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78748

Hi Jurgis RE: Nokia Corporation (NOK) Motorola, Inc. Common Stock (NYSE: MOT) I am hunting for value in both of these companies (I own positions in both). There was some rumblings that NOK may be interested in all or parts of MOT, specifically their infrastructure division (The non mobile component). The idea is to see if they can buy it on the cheap (NOK has plenty of cash) and consolidate the company with their Siemens AG (SI) JV into some new holding company. They would need to sell off the cable "smart box" unit as NOK has no interest in this line of business. Ichan a large holder of MOT shares will probably demand too high a price for the non mobile component to make the deal work but if he backs the proposal it could be a winner for all parties. Here was a 2009 valuation of the pieces analysis for MOT that Morgan Keegan & Co. wrote. According to the article, they have MOT valued between $9.00/share excluding Mobile Devises. The Mobile Devise Division is worth $0-$5.00/share in 2-3 years. This was before the Android smart phone was such a big hit. At the bottom of page 12 of the report I saw this statement regarding the industry outlook for 2010. *"... in 2010 NOK will likely sell about 60-70 million smartphones, RIM about 40 million, Apple about 30 million, HTC about 10 million, Palm about 7 million..."*. morgankeegan.com Both HTC and MOT are having trouble delivering on their smartphone orders. I guess this is a good problem to have but industry insiders say that the market is so fluid that customers will not necessarily come back to buy your phone if it is not in stock. MOT traded almost 2x it's average volume today. Frankly I believe NOK to be the better long term value play but MOT seems to be getting the better buying volume. I am not too sure what to do, but I want to eventually consolidate my holdings into NOK. If NOK falls on a MOT buy out offer (or partial company buy out), I will feel better and sell my MOT and put it into NOK. Still just sitting on both positions but feel better about my MOT after reading the Morgan Keegan & Co. valuation paper. EKS