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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (260096)	7/12/2010 11:44:32 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

As there are very few credit-worthy borrowers, banks are borrowing money from the Fed for virtually nothing and buying Treasury bonds to earn the spread to help pay down their write-offs. This alone explains the very low Treasury yields. Banks have long experience with borrowing short-term and lending long-term so, if there is an economical method to hedge this rate spread I'm sure they already have. U.S. Treasury bonds are ready collateral, so there is no reason banks will need to sell ten year bonds sooner than maturity. I don't see an obvious trigger for a rise in long-term bond yields and a decline in bond prices for another six to eight years. What am I missing? .

To: TH who wrote (260096)	7/12/2010 3:13:05 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

TH, haven't studied it - but i think i recall some people mentioning 4.7% +/- as the technical limit for a major change. i could be wrong - perhaps by a lot. until they sever money from debt, i'm fully in the deflation camp. this could include bank closures, market closures and FDIC defaults (all ushered in on a bankrupt american nation by the IMF/WB banking gang - for cover purposes). gold may well continue to rise, but it is doing so for the same reason i paid off my house and got completely out of debt - i simply want to make my wealth as difficult as possible for the financial criminals to steal - and bank accounts, retirement accounts and market accounts are fat turkeys right around thanksgiving. if i had to bet, though, gold will go down, but not nearly as much as the market - hence my desire to let this rally run out of gas and then go long CEF (don't trust GLD) and short some aspect of the stock market in a "barbell" strategy with equal weighting. i found this podcast is pretty consistent with my american economic outlook... twobeerswithsteve.libsyn.com i haven't seen anything to move me out of my inflation / deflation banker asset stripping model (sheering the sheep, as it were). of course, my view is that bankers run the country for their benefit - so i always ask myself what benefits them and expect that to play out. inflating to cover banker losses makes sense. inflating to save the sheeple makes no sense - and almost certainly won't happen large scale. government might try that, but government is captured and under near complete control of the financial oligarchs, and that is so obvious to be silly to argue otherwise. the bankers also benefit from huge volatility as they are insiders and know the moves in advance - so i continue to expect volatility.