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To: RetiredNow who wrote (260549)	7/13/2010 8:20:25 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I believe that one reason we may see big tech do well is that other companies are looking to invest in tech in lieu of hiring more employees. They want the productivity gains through 1 time investment instead of through permanent employee overhead. That makes for great short run gains in the economy, but without the consumers getting jobs, everything will just drag along slowly or continue to deteriorate. Listen to the CC for AA. AA is a ne'er do well company.....yet almost every one of their divisions are showing improvement....stuff like aerospace and cars. Its well worth the listen. I have faith that what we are seeing right now is an economic contraction that will get this country back to a sustainable GDP level. We were never a true 14 trillion economy. That was just government borrowing from the future to prop up today's economy. The real sustainable economy looks a lot more like $11-12 trillion. The last year and a half was our government's attempt to delay the contraction. Now the contraction is having its way. Could be but if GDP keeps growing like it has since 4th quarter, 2009, then I suspect your theory is wrong.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (260549)	7/13/2010 8:38:42 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

We were never a true 14 trillion economy. That was just government borrowing from the future to prop up today's economy. The real sustainable economy looks a lot more like $11-12 trillion. The last year and a half was our government's attempt to delay the contraction. Now the contraction is having its way. So in order to contract the almost 20% needed, what do you think GDP will be going forward: A few years of -5%/year, or more years at -2%/year or what? Currently we are growing in the +3% range, so you are suggesting a very big change. FWIW, I don't think its going to happen. We might well dip towards recession, but it will be mild, and we might well have substandard growth for many years, but we are not going to contract by 20% over a few years.