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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (260650)	7/14/2010 12:59:28 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

If American industry has become as incompetent as you suggest, then we are in decline and that's that. Clearly, the banks had become corrupted. Time will tell. On this issue, I feel that I am too close to the trees to see the forest. And its really a very different issue on whether we are in economic recovery or not. It really depends on how systemic the corruption and incompetence has become. we have absolute proof that our financial industry is at best incompetent and at worst utterly corrupt. As far as me trying to prove I'm right, I really don't want to be proven right. My retirement depends on me being proven wrong. However, the last time we had a financial crisis of this magnitude was in the 1930s. So most of the CEOs in power today, simply don't understand what has just happened, or if they do, they don't understand that nothing has been fixed. They don't understand that increased economic volatility and shorter recoveries and business cycles are what we should expect going forward. I think most CEOs are in the mindset that we will now be in a recovery/boom cycle for the next 3-4 years, because that's what we've typically seen over the last 30 years. However, what is far more likely is that we'll have 1-2 year recoveries, followed by renewed contraction. Do I think CEOs are planning for this? No, I don't. They aren't planning for it just like they didn't plan for the mortgage market to blow up and take the rest of the economy with it. I'm confident in this assessment because in my own company right now, there is a hell of a lot of bullishness that completely discounts any bad news. Not good. Not cautiously optimistic.