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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (260943)	7/14/2010 9:02:16 PM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 306849

;-) This is what I'm trying to tell Skeeter. Got gold? I've been expecting a lunatic type outcome for a while....we're getting there. I don't think the GOM is the big one....it's a big one....but not THE big one, IMO. I think the GOM is destroyed, will go on for years, and is equivalent to the 1930 dust bowl. Something very bad is going to happen....I am confident in that. Current events form future trends. How can anyone NOT expect a lunatic type outcome?

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (260943)	7/14/2010 10:13:55 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

The Fed's balance sheet during OpEx weeks seekingalpha.com

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (260943)	7/15/2010 9:21:08 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

market-ticker.denninger.net Amusing report this morning... In the week ending July 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 454,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 475,000. The 4-week moving average was 466,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 467,250. Nice drop, but the real stunner was the drop in the EUC programs (including so-called "extended benefits", better read as "massive government largesse") - it dropped a stunning 367,948. Now you can believe that these were people who found jobs, or you can believe that it's people who ran out of benefits (or gave up) and simply aren't counted any more. In the world of "honest government economic reporting", a person who gives up looking for a job after exhausting his handouts, er, "benefits", is no longer unemployed. He may be destitute, he may be living under a bridge, he may be eating rats after clubbing them with a stick in NYC (after all, it's illegal to have a gun there to shoot them with) but he certainly isn't unemployed! The Empire Manufacturing Index, on the other hand, looks rather double-dippy. Nice graph folks: newyorkfed.org If that was a stock I'd be looking for an imminent breakdown and collapse - that's a classic "M" pattern. It's not a stock, of course, but I certainly can't help the comparisons (that's what I get for being a trader, I suppose.) Employment expectations in the survey were unchanged for the balance of 2010, which isn't so good. Sales expectations, however, are expected to improve. Ok. The drop from last month though was material - from 19.6 to 5.1 in the present month. Numbers over 0 are "improvement", so this is a steep decline in the rate of improvement - but at least it's still positive. For now. The danger in the internals is in the unfilled orders index, which went negative, implying that there's no pull of demand (that is, vendors can fill all the orders they have, then some.) Worse, the workweek index dropped negative as well, to -9.5. This confirms the above - that vendors have no problem meeting demand and are not needing people to work as many hours in order to do so. This is a forward and coincident indicator of current demand, and has softened a highly-material amount. All future expectation indices also dropped materially - while they're still positive, they won't be next month if this trend continues. We continue to pile up more and more evidence of what I and a handful of others have been talking about since last spring (2009) - the claim of "recovery" and "economic prosperity" is nonsense; all we've done is tried to play "pull forward demand" once again, this time with government debt issuance, and now that's wearing off. Unfortunately, unless someone can show us where we're going to be able to find another place to "pull it from" (and I bet you can figure out where I think they're going to reach next - the sun doesn't shine there) we're about out of rope on the long series of scams both run and enabled by Washington. Buckle up folks - the evidence is rapidly becoming irrefutable.