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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (64758)	7/16/2010 7:41:06 AM
From: Golconda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217669

it's convenient not just for small cliques in the neighborhood but for cliques in the world at large!

To: elmatador who wrote (64758)	7/16/2010 8:34:26 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	1 Recommendation Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217669

From: Haim R. Branisteanu Sent: Friday, July 16, 2010 8:11 AM To: Cc: Subject: Almost forgotten - The EUR is DEAD - Long Live the Clown Buck - REALY?? Hi Yoram/Adi, My understanding is that Bank HaPoalim is preparing a EUR 5,000 check for me. Thank you very much for your effort in arranging this compensation for my insightful analysis at a time that every clown in town receiving millions in compensation predicted parity to the EUR/USD pair. Since I wrote the e-mail below the EUR/USD advance well over full 10 figures from 1.1960 or so Hope you have my accurate postal address to send the check NO US Dollars please – have sufficient toilet paper. (uuups got a bit to self-confident back to the drawing board) Cheers Haim From: Haim R. Branisteanu Sent: Friday, June 04, 2010 6:04 AM To: Cc: Subject: The EUR is DEAD - Long Live the Clown Buck TO ALL All the tea leaves reader proclaim that the EUR is dead, even the newspapers in the US published that the EUR is fading – which historically is a perfect longer term contrary indicator, about everything in the financial markets the US newspapers are predicting. For those interested a closer look at relative statistics reveals a complete different picture In the US the formal unemployment rate is around 9.8 to 10% this is great contrast to; Holland 4% with GDP of 795 B Austria below 5% with GDP 380 B Denmark 7% with GDP 310 B Germany around 7.7% with GDP $3.35 T Belgium 8% with GDP 470 B France has unemployment similar to the US of 9.8% with GDP 2.675 T Italy 9% with GDP of 2.12 T Another way of interpreting the employment numbers is the cost of lost jobs assuming that 4% unemployment as full employment is US 14.2 T x 6% or $850B Holland 0 Austria $3.8B Denmark $9B Germany $124B Belgium $18B France $155B Italy $106B. and by this achieving a total of 416 B or about ½ of the US rate. Adding Spain would increase the number by 16%x1.464T or 234B for a total of $650B still well below the US rate The manufacturing PMI in all those countries is more or less at 2005 to 2006 level which is an indication of a fast growing economy which is also validated by Germany Ifo index of 101% If one would take into account the average of the EU industrialized nations multiplied by GDP we will arrive to some interesting results, as shown above. More so as the wages and productivity are more or less similar to the US the average income tax receipt of the general population in industrialized EU are substantially higher than in the US and therefore their budget deficit of those countries is lower than the US more so that the retirement age is being harmonized in all countries which represents the main drag on states budget deficits. The fascination with Greece whose total debt equals to less than 3 months of US budget deficits is taken out of ALL proportion, and same would apply to Portugal whose economy at $220 B is 2/3 of Greece. For example California an economy with a 1.8 trillion GDP has a budget deficit of 2 to 3%, add to this the US Federal budget deficit the combined budget deficit ratio is between 13.5% to 14.5% which is worse than Greece a $330B economy. Nevada, Michigan, ILL, NJ, NY FL, NY are in similar situation which if compared to the EU situation will reveal how blindsided the market is. The export markets of the EU are aside from the US, mainly the BRIC countries with a total GDP of 4.9T+1.58T+1.24T+1.23T or close to $9 trillion one should not forget S. Korea and Indonesia with a combined GDP of 1.37 trillion which is not in a recession similar to the US or EU. With the EUR around 9% lower from my anticipated balance v the USD the EU manufacturing enterprises almost doubled their income tax payouts from increased profitability which will take care of the budget deficit that he speculators so much fret about it, and any restructuring of Greece debt will be barely noticeable from an economic point of view even that the news will be all over the news channels. Due to the prosperity of the core EU industrialized countries and BRIC there will be a renewed flow of tourists and summer homes acquisitions which in turn will bail out the countries now PIGS from their problems after all where all those earning will be spend? For sure not in the US toward which there is a great resentment. This process will take a while to be noticed and then the herd will turn its attention on the US with the EUR rising again to unprofitable levels for EU manufacturing industry