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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JOHN W. who wrote (2688)	11/7/1997 5:13:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Subject: Estimate of net new patients Date: Fri, Nov 7, 1997 10:22 EST From: LMoss Message-id: <19971107152200.KAA15749@ladder01.news.aol.com> I'll give an estimate of net new patients per month, but keep in mind that the data for estimating correction factors is not accurately known. Let's start with IMS new scrips of about 15000/mo for a 5-week month. I apply the following factors: x 3/2 to account for non-retail channels x 0.85 to account for switching pharmacies, dropouts, etc. x 4.33/5 to convert from a 5-week month to an average 4.33-week month This gives net new patients of 16562/month, which if continued is sufficient to attain my estimate of $1.5 billion in U.S. Viracept sales in FY99. LMoss