To: CPAMarty who wrote (24961 ) 11/8/1997 9:18:00 AM From: John Rieman Respond to of 50808
A little analog with your digital. 300M settops? 28M DVD? 50M HDTVs???????????????????????????/ November 10, 1997, Issue: 1083 Section: Semiconductors ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Analog benefits from digital world -- Many up-and-coming digital divices use a significant number of analog components By Charles Mantel Of the markets for analog chips, consumer audio and video are among the most dynamic. Familiar home products are both in the midst of a transition to a digital world, and also benefiting from the introduction of traditional analog products into emerging nations in South America and Asia, which are eager to enjoy creature comforts long taken for granted in North America, Europe, and Japan. Although today's most advanced consumer devices manipulate data digitally, they represent an opportunity for analog devices to provide a plethora of functions required for interfacing between the analog and digital worlds as well as for powering these devices. The most often cited equipment includes set-top converters, DVD equipment, HDTV equipment, LCDs, WebTV, and home theater equipment. Analog set-top converters have been around for a long time. Digital set-top converters are new and represent a potential market of more than 300 million devices worldwide by the year 2002, according to many suppliers. If one considers the number of households with analog set-top converters, such a total seems attainable. But a new $300 digital set-top converter does not provide much more than does the current analog set for less than $100. Digital set-top converters could provide access to the Internet and to pay-per-view programming. They could also replace analog modems with much faster cable modems using ADSL, HSL, or similar technology or satellite access, depending on the type of converter and the supplier. Yet today there are few providers of any of the above programming or high-speed communications services. To go into the reasons why would fill this publication. The answer to when such programming and services will happen depends on whom you ask. Nevertheless, it is the wave of the future and it will happen. DVD video players do exist today. They are the cornerstone of the digital revolution at the consumer level. Each DVD player contains an average of $35 in semiconductors. Approximately $8 is in analog components and/or analog functions. A video DVD provides up to 133 minutes of compressed video, stored in digital format. In less than a year there will be DVD-RAM home equipment which will be able to record video images. There are expected to be 28 million DVD units sold in the year 2000 for consumer applications. In the consumer world, DVD will displace the VCR, the CD, and the laser disk. But because of a lack of software and high component costs, this displacement will be a slow process. The future of HDTV and the timetable for its dominance depend on cost, acceptance, and government regulations. Currently, broadcasters can offer up to four channels of less-than-HDTV resolution or one channel of HDTV programming. In the year 2000 we expect to see as many as 50 million sets worldwide. A typical HDTV set would contain $38 to $49 worth of analog components, depending on the standard employed and the amount of stereo equipment attached to the HDTV set. LCDs will replace the cathode-ray tubes currently in every TV set made. In addition to the LCD material, a typical LCD contains nearly $28 in analog components associated with the display, but not necessarily part of it. In newly developed chip-on-glass technology, the analog drivers are placed on the LCD material, minimizing space and adding reliability. The LCD contacts are buried in the LCD itself. WebTV, strongly supported by Bill Gates and Philips, purports to be the link between the TV and the Internet. In 1996, only 6,400 sets were sold. More than 81,000 sets will be sold in 1997, and in the year 2002, more than 1.5 million sets will be sold worldwide. This number could increase drastically if regular programming were offered on the Internet. The Internet also allows many other activities that are not available with regular TV, including interactive activities. Eventually consumers will be able to view a program or display and talk to the party on the other side. WebTV is an interim product, as are digital VCRs, MiniDisc equipment, and analog modems. Each has a limited lifetime. But each can generate substantial sales, and each consumes at least $5 worth of analog components per piece of equipment sold. -Charles Mantel is an analyst with Selantek Inc., Mountain View, Calif. He can be reached at (415) 965-0787 or (415) 428-0850 (fax). His e-mail address is mantel@selantek.com. Copyright (c) 1997 CMP Media Inc. [New Search] [Search the Web] You can reach this article directly:techweb.com