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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (885)	11/7/1997 9:58:00 PM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 1911

Bobby, Someone saved me the trouble, this summary contains all the info I have seen from this: Date: Fri Nov 07 1997 (Princeton Forecasts): Following is my summary of some recent forecasts by Princeton Economics. These forecasts were written in mid October. CAUTION - NOT TO BE READ BY THE HIGHLY EMOTIONAL OR FAINT HEARTED. GOLD The US budget deficit will turn into a surplus during the first half of 1998 and the US may begin retiring debt for the first time since 1837. This, combined with selling pressure from CBs and producers, means that new lows in the 229 - 255 range may occur by mid 98. 1998 will be a turning point from which a 1976 - 1980 style bull market will ensue, with gold making record highs by 2003. SILVER Silver remains the object of insider manipulation, with stockpiles being artificially lowered. However, it is almost impossible to create a bull market in the middle of sheer bearishness. No sustainable rally in silver is possible without a monthly and year end closing above 5.41. Downside risk is currently far greater than upside potential. If silver closes 1997 below 4.29 then we will at least see 3.27 in 1998. US DOLLAR PEI expect the dollar to get MUCH stronger over the next few years due to continued flow of capital to the US. If the dollar closes 1997 above 168.65 dollar/mark and 126.68 dollar/yen, then this is very bullish for the dollar in 1998. Closing 1997 above 173.48 and 144.80 respectively would be outrageously bullish and warn of a full scale panic in 1998. The politicians ( G7 ) will continue to try to talk the dollar down, but this is not conforming to capital flow and hence just increases volatility. Net capital outflow from Japan is more than 20 times its trade surplus, therefore it will take a lot more than words from the G7 to prevent the dollar from breaking out against the Yen. The dollar goes to a major high every 18 years, signaling that the peak of the current bull market will occur in 2003 US SHAREMARKET PEI do not see a 1987 style crash developing. In 1987 the dollar was declining and capital was pouring out of the US instead of in. They expect a drop to around Dow 6500. In August I posted the following regarding the US market : "Princeton are certain that the bull market in stocks will take the Dow to somewhere between 10,000 and 12,500. The only question is timing. There are 2 possible scenarios : a ) July/Aug 1997 period produces a temporary high, followed by a correction/consolidation phase into July 1998, followed by a huge bull market going into 2003 b ) New highs occur after Sep 97, leading to a major top in July 1998, followed by a sharp 30-40% correction going into 1999, followed by a re-bound into 2003 Basically, the current bull market in US stocks has nothing at all to do with traditional measures of valuation such as P/Es, Price/Book, dividend yields, etc. It is about international capital flows. Capital is simply in a state of global panic, a situation which is only going to be magnified in the future. With Europe and Asia offering untold risks, the US markets will remain the only game in town for some time." Scenario a ) appears to be playing out. NIKKEI This market holds the greatest risk. A monthly closing below 17019 will warn that the final blow-off to the downside is beginning. A 1997 year end closing below 17019 will signal disaster for the Nikkei.