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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan A. who wrote (7350)	11/8/1997 11:20:00 AM
From: SJF	Respond to of 79352

Dan: Well put. I'd like to add though, that most Y2K cos. will have significant revenue opportunity well past Y2K. As you'd expect, the F-1000 firms have their remediation well under way. But according to a recent report, over 60% of small-middle sized mainframe shops haven't yet begun. Since the process typically takes 1 1/2-3 years to complete and resources are very scarce, most companies won't fully complete their conversion until well past Y2K. We're advising clients now to prioritize their programs so that the most critical ones are certainly fixed, while others may wait past Y2K. Indeed, 1998-2000 will be a bonanza for Y2K cos. I've heard expected figures of up to $400/hour for COBOL programming work by 1999. If your kid's in college, tell him to take a COBOL course! These are rare skills and literally tens or even hundreds of billions of lines of code to fix worldwide. That's B for billions. Remember the saying, "so many ----, so little time" (wanted to be politically correct--fill in the blank yourself) Additionally, the testing portion of the Y2K fix can be the most expensive and time consuming (if done properly). So Y2K shops can realy expect continued revenue growth through 2003-2004. That's our long-term outlook, anyway. Bottom line--Y2K hits crisis proportions in mid-late 1998. Then these Y2K cos. will only be limited by the number of programmers they can find.