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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (38583)	7/23/2010 11:08:31 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78671

Jurgis, i don't think that Taleb is a Loonie at all. His Book "Fooled by Randomness" is a great read, in my opinion - in fact it's one of the best books I have read about the markets recently. I agree with you that betting on black swans does not work for most individuals but you could potentially buy portfolio insurance using SPY puts with deep out of the money puts reasonably cheap if you do it when things are reasonably calm still ( and put premiums cheap as well). I also think that Taleb does not bet on Black Swans, his specialty is probability and his niche are unlikely events. This can be all sorts of things, not just macro meltdowns. The Chinese RE has not really blown up yet - it has dipped and the buyers on dips have been rewarded. The real blow up will be when the buyers on dips blow up and the Chinese banks with them.