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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: prosperous who wrote (64849)7/23/2010 6:27:16 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218159
 
just in in-tray, per GREED n fear

· More and more people are convinced that tightening in China has reached its peak. GREED & fear has little doubt about this also, and the latest CPI data clearly shows that inflationary pressure appears to have peaked. All this is a reason to be building a position in China policy stocks.

· Still GREED & fear would continue to hedge an overweight China position by being underweight those economies, sectors and companies which are viewed as beneficiaries of China growth. The view here remains that the rest of the year will see a deceleration in China’s growth rate. This will provide a context for the evolution of China policy tightening from an end of tightening to the beginning of easing.

· Germany is reportedly preparing a legal exit plan for countries in the Euro zone that fail to meet the necessary fiscal criteria. This is only sensible contingency planning on the part of a country and a political culture which has always valued order.

· The last has not been heard about Euroland and its troubles. Clearly, the best case is that the Europeans can make the required fiscal adjustment. Still it is a very tall order.

· Germans are now suddenly interested in buying residential property. The catalyst has been the loss of trust in the euro combined with the decent yield that can be achieved in residential property relative to German bank deposits and bond yields. Germany remains the only interesting secular story in the Western property sector with the possible exception of Switzerland. All other property markets will at some point become interesting “distressed” opportunities. But it is not time yet!

· CLSA’s Singapore office has launched a new “dividend cocktail portfolio” this week consisting of eight Singapore dividend plays. The portfolio has a weighted yield of 5.4% denominated in what remains GREED & fear’s favourite low beta Asian currency. Investors, with an income need, can do a lot worse than invest in this portfolio on an ongoing monthly basis. Remember that the best ideas in investment are the simplest.

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