hello pezz, report:
My investment (scratch that), my financial survival premise is as below, not so much to be clever, but to be prudent:
(i) The OECD world, led by USA, has been suffering from a depression since 2006 when housing peaked, following on a major recession which started in 1999 / 2000 when TMT bubble burst;
(ii) The fiat money inflation led by the Federal Reserve had followed on Japan’s earlier effort at staving off depression, and has accomplished not very much in nominal terms, and accomplished less than nothing in real terms;
(iii) Within the context of globalized fiat money inflation, the fact the velocity of money slowed down even as printed money spewed forth is an interesting fact, but the truth remains that massive fiat money ended up pooling somewhere and everywhere, even if staying perfectly still;
(iv) The consequences are simple, and in truth predictable per precedence, that bad paper cash drive out good gold money, devaluation gets competitive and so sequential, interest rates are jammed to zero, costs rise everywhere, savings get diluted all over the place, long term investment case is not to be found, speculation rationale goes pervasive, industry droop, enterprise still-born, education goes careless, learning goes extinct, moral guidance goes lax, spin ramps up, and societies devolve;
(v) The Greater Asia world, led by China, has been wagering for an once-in-eight-hundred-years renaissance of a fundamental sort and structural nature, and, aided by profligacy of OECD world, ramps up to sate 600-years worth of pent-up demands
(vi) Juxtaposed, the tending-to-debt-deflation OECD world, with its paltry savings, plenty sloth, and universal suffrage-induced mediocrity in leadership as can only be managed by and for the people given mathematical average-ness, and the tending-to-credit-inflation Greater Asia world, with its new found dynamism, already hit-bottom-and-reverting-to-the-mean impetus, we then see what we see, one planet, two different spots on the debt-super-cycle graph
(vii) The planet, with one leg in boiling hot inflationary water, and another limb in icy cold deflationary water, on average is just fine, and all debates, meaninglessly, re whether we are inflating or deflating, and if we should cut back or enhance quantitative easing, even as the situation continues to head to zero hour, and we are fated to meet the destined singularity, that be global zero-state monetary reset point
(viii) As I had mentioned at some other point, the Euro is worth more than the Yuan because the quality of the material is better; USD is better than RMB because the former has a metallic strip; Yen bests Yuan because it is larger, dimension foolish, and AUD/CAD/CHF are better still because small states cannot have more space to put printing press than larger nations
(ix) In such an environment below which rests our above premise, should we for a moment believe we can best the market by picking individual stocks? I am not s arrogant
(x) Under the circumstances can we wager either bonds will pay more or be worth less? I do not have the appetite
(xi) Given the state of is, should we engage with OECD real estate or Greater Asia construction and pretend that the taxing address would not prove hurtful? Why?
I figure, we should:
- Engage with territories sporting a fiscal surplus
- Which are led by leadership genuinely terrified of own people
- Who (the people) are not encumbered with unserviceable debt
- Who have plenty not yet burning but still at the civil societal stake
- Allocated to asset classes that cannot be printed into oblivion
And so I figure, Noble Gold, Strategic Platinum, Cheap but Yielding Real Estate in Hong Kong (and Singapore and Zurich if such exists), and avoid debt-ly debt, for when the global debt monster dies, its tail swipe can still kill. This basket of goodies should do OK in the arena where the west is deflating and the east is inflating, and at some sorry juncture we will keep appointment with global zero-state monetary reset of the nastiest sort.
And sure, yes, also, between the onset of the darkest interregnum and the global zero-state monetary reset, we should be able to make some money by astute bet and agile wager, in this and that, in alignment with deserving merit.
All could be quite interesting as we get shocked by the dying anguish of what once were, and awed by the birthing cry of that which must be.
Amen, TJ |
