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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (8614)	7/23/2010 2:08:24 PM
From: Doren	Respond to of 16955

#10 ARMH hits new high today as Microsoft signs license. Up 12%

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (8614)	7/28/2010 3:18:52 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

FSLR earnings preview: 2Q10 analyst estimates: rev. 541M$, EPS $1.60 (range $1.04-2.01) per WSJ FY10 estimates: rev. 2.62B$, EPS $7.09 per WSJ valuation: EPS 7.09 X PE 15 = $106. Using a PE of 20, and a 2011 EPS of $8, gives a valuation of $160. I'd consider anything above $160 overvalued, given all the uncertainties. module manufacturing cost, in $/w: 0.84 2009 0.76 2010 0.68 2011 0.61 2012 0.55 2013 0.50 2014 2009 is actual; 2010-14 assumes 10%/year decrease. Since they cut manufacturing costs almost in half, from $1.59 to $0.84, in the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009, a 10%/y fall seems very doable. This is the moving target their competitors have to match (adjusting for differences in solar efficiency). Credit Suisse has a nice chart showing changes in efficiencies, for 5 solar companies, for the last 3 years. Basically, everyone shows modest improvement. $350 = target price for FSLR, October 2008, per Credit Suisse.