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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (38591)	7/23/2010 4:26:16 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78696

the most successful traders in the recent past are very likely to be just monkeys and are very likely to blow up. the reason being that they have a style that matches the current market characteristics (which makes them successful for a while) but if this market changes they will very likely keep doing things the same they have been doing them in their career and blow up. First of all, I hate the whole "there's nothing in the market, but traders" mentality both in the article and apparently in the book. If we are talking about traders, I'll go one over Taleb and say that ALL traders blow up. Trading is like gambling. If we are talking about long-term investors, then I disagree. And IMHO, Bill Miller non-excepting, there has been almost no "blow ups" in 2008-2009. Which leads to... What is a "blow up"? Most value funds / investments dropped in 2008-2009. Is that a "blow up"? IMHO, no, most of the value investors are back up over 2007 levels, but perhaps you (and Taleb) don't agree.