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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nancy who wrote (13730)	11/8/1997 1:23:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 50167

Hi Nancy Long time no hear??? First of all, I too like Ed Yardeni, always respected his views in general...But it brings up a real dilemma...On the one hand if in fact we begin to head toward a recession, it will probably happen after Alan G raises rates, and not till then... I think AG would have raised right here right now if it were not for the current debacle in Asia & Latin America..Hey it would not SHOCK me if he did it any way next week...Be prepared...For sure in DEC, it's almost a given.. This potential event could cap this market for the next 2 months..We could simply back and fill, and move sideways during this rather unstable time Globally and In our stock Market..BTW he is again on the hill this next week on the 13th??? anybody know why??? Oh yeah it's ONE day after the FOMC!!!!!!!! The thought of a recession means LOWER interest rates not higher..So I feel we are a long way from that time...A 20% possiblity from Yardeni is right now remote...It would take a raise in rates to slow the economy substantially, and that would or could create the potential for a future recession... Right now this country is perking on all cylinders...I was very surprised that the currency debacle in Hong Kong had such an effect on Global Markets... It took me by surprise...In fact I posted this on the BK thread, and Bill Hueb scoffed at my remarks... He was right... But be that as it may, i think this too shall pass...Remember too Nancy, the current laws in place Nationally and thru watchdog agencies and of course the SEC, gives us certain protection from Money Managers and their antics... In fact the general public is the best force to be reckoned with in the event off a meltdown...Most people can simply move their funds to the sidelines at will...The enormous amount of people investing in these funds have considerable clout when it counts...I read where several brokerage houses did not execute very well the other day...And they made monetary restitution for their mistakes... Don't count the little guy out...These people and I'm one of them<g>, are not of the past generations...When I think of MY parents and grandparents, it makes me smile??? Buy the OEX???, sell short the S&P's??? I don't think so<VBG>....They are from another era, an era of innocence, for sure... We on the other hand have at least a semblance of knowledge of what is right and wrong...I don't think the public will be fooled...We'll see... Anyway I got a BUY PFE MAR 70 calls from Bernie, and at the same time he said to sell the PFE NOV 70 puts as well...Thought that would be of interest to you... Bullish huh??? See you my friend.. Jerry

To: Nancy who wrote (13730)	11/9/1997 10:30:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Respond to of 50167

>>ASEAN countries are Japan's largest trade partners, and when Japan cannot export as before, naturally it would try aggressively to sell more in U.S. and the low YEN certainly help their course<< Hi Nancy, I still think that what has occurred to date is more a market event than an economic event but the major risk that exists is that if the problems in SE Asia spread to Japan, in its weakened state and to Latin America, what we will then have is an economic event. The question is whether the market is foreseeing this. Take care