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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (264008)	7/26/2010 11:29:24 AM
From: grusum	Respond to of 306849

N: "LOL! So your view is that the recession we just went through would have been milder without government spending?" my view is that what we went through wouldn't have happened without government intervention in the market. how do you know that govie spending has helped us out of the recession? nobel laureate klown krugman believes we haven't spent enough to end the recession! he wants more of what has already put us in this mess. it's like he has a death wish. give a keynesian any economy to work with and he will ruin it. ------------ N: "Uh? What the heck is this "before they occur". That would be nicer, but I'm happy with a noticeable lag for detection. For mild peaks & dips the lag might well be longer than the event, but so what, mild events don't benefit much from intervention. The housing bubble and this recession were quite detectable well before either was over, and thus intervention could have some benefit." how will you be able to know that the upleg or downleg hasn't ended before you take the needed action? since you've already conceded you can't know know where or when the peaks and troughs will occur, how can you know when or where they will end or begin? as far as the housing bubble is concerned, there were many that said we weren't in one until after the bust began. so who do we listen to? who do we trust to make prescient decisions? hind sight, as they say is 20/20. i thought the bubble started in 2001 when i argued against buying a house because the prices were sure to come down. by 2005 i was starting to doubt my sanity and thought maybe i had the whole thing wrong because the bubble had lasted so long. i thought maybe the whole thing could go on for another 10 years. who knows? ----------- N: "At any rate, the fastest growing (longish term) economy has a VERY interventionist government. Further they slam the control stick from one side to the other ala bang-bang control quite frequently. You might want to scratch your noggin about why such a system has cranked out 9% growth for so many years." no, the fastest declining longish term economy has a very interventionist government. intervention feels good when it's happening, but the price is just increasing and being pushed a little further down the road. i think your 9% growth is being paid for in the declining value of the dollar.