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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (10533)	11/8/1997 12:35:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

PV. Leading edge companies are just starting to ramp into full 0.25uM production. It will likely take 4-6 months to really be running in a full production mode in the newest fabs as the "bugs" are worked out and production yields are approaching their maximum output. Lithography and etching are still the most likely bottlenecks as the transition occurs. It seems that it takes about 1 1/2 - 2 years between device generation changes to move to the "next" evolution in technology. One point to consider is that each decrease in geometries also has a cooresponding decrease in voltage required to power the devices on the chip. The implications of this are that the end users also have to engineer their products to use the reduced voltages in their designs and still maintain compatiblity with other devices and hardware that is available on the market. Mixing different voltage devices causes unnecessary engineering difficulty and requires additional voltage regulation devices on circuit cards which increases cost and complicates designs. This is a major reason that product manufacturers may not fully endorse new chip designs immediately until there is a ready supply of supporting chips to enable their designs efficiently, plus the cost comes down as more chip manufactureres are competing on pricing at the reduced geometries. My opinion is that it will take about 2 years before the next generation of devices is necessary which will require upgrades to existing equipment and replacement of specific equipment that can't perform at the required level necessary for advanced devices. 300mm equipment will likely start at 0.25uM but be capable of 0.18uM production with necessary hardware or process changes. The caveat is the lithoghraphy efficiency/accuracy, it depends on whether DUV or another more robust technology proves to be the winner in the long term. My bet is with ion milling or x-ray to make the subsequent generations of devices below 0.18uM. Just my opinion, BB

To: Paul V. who wrote (10533)	11/8/1997 1:16:00 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Respond to of 70976

Paul V, Cary is right...You see, INTC's strategy is to compete in all the different price segments of the computer chip market. We will be seeing price-cuttings in the chip making as well as in the computer making arena as demand increases for their wares---all to the delight of businesses and consumers. The competition will be fierce, so as to make AMAT and other Semi-Equips (who are supplying the weapons for the combatants) to be more busy than ever...The move to smaller geometries and larger wafers will come sooner than we are expecting!...But that takes some time, in the meantime Cheaper chips via Cheaper labor will play center stage...