To: Galirayo who wrote (4953 ) 11/9/1997 1:26:00 PM From: Stephen D. French Respond to of 9262
I have found that watching minute by minute charts will indicate possible directions a stock will take based on certain critera. For example, a declining stock which is nearing its base or suppport level: When a stock is declining and it's reaching its base (for reasons you need to be confident about), the volume spikes(bars) will decline in somewhat of a linear pattern, (drawing a line from the top of the major spikes). During this decline period eventually the volatility will decline and the price range narrows, Many times the line drawn on top of the volume spikes point toward a period when the volume becomes quite low (in relative terms). This period is due to the uncertainty of which direction the stock will take. Some times this period is so short it can't be identified but most often it's present at least in a short time frame (> 3-4 minutes etc). If the low volume period is identified, usually a narrow price range is associated with it (logical). I call this the stable/low volume area. What happens from this point on is critical to day traders or people looking for a buy in point. <<Many traders don't want to buy into a stock until it trades in a stable pattern. It also refers to very short term trading like this or longer term positions.>> Using this as a premis, When the price is stable, and you are interested in buying the stock, you should prepare to be able to purchase shares ASAP if the signs are good. What's the most critical is to look at what happens to the stock when the first major volume spikes occur after the stable period. If the price upticks, it means a possible change in direction. You need to see at least 3-4 major volume spikes going in the opposite direction from the decline.(meaning a line drawn from the top of the volume spikes pushing the stock upwards). It is also critical that you don't see any weakness in the stock when the major volume spikes enter after the stable/low volume area. Once this trend is identified, it often builds on itself and other traders jump in and the trend is reveresed. I look at the increasing volume spikes as pressure pushing the stock up. If the outlook for the stock is truely negative, this advance will be short lived.Momentum from short sellers alone help propel it upwards and the advances from them are usually short lived. It's very important to identify stocks that are due to rebound and continue upwards for a point or two. Playing the short covering bounce may not give you enough time to react. Charts that are very bullish often continue to be after some profit taking. I've saved many examples of this technique as a learning/refresher example for myself. These procedures can be used in a longer term scenario. If anyone would like to discuss these ideas further, please ask.