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To: Nancy who wrote (28039)11/9/1997 9:02:00 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 58727
 
Nancy,

Thankyou for your note.

In response to your comments, lets first start with the issue of fundamentals. As I have said over numerous occassions I do not consider fundamental, therefore I do not consider cyclical cycles, since they are still quite subjective and I have not found a way to quantify them, nor have I got that far with the development of my system.

I had mentioned to Tom of only one example, which you felt it necessary to comment on. Maybe it was unfair that I did not give all the examples, but just wanted to give TOM a quick response. I am seeing quantifiable signals that the following indexes will hit new highs: DRG, XOI, PNX, XBD, BKX, RUT, UTY, XAL, SECTOR 3 AND 4 OF THE NASDAQ. (Since the NASDAQ is so large I break up the NASDAQ into 5 parts, whereby parts 2/3/4 are the mid to smallest caps of the NASDAQ and 1/2 are the BIG CAPS). As a whole the NASDAQ may still break new highs, but if it does it will not be done with the main help of the BIG CAPS).

As for a time period, some of the indexes could set new highs within weeks and more by end of the year.

Please keep in mind that in my response to TOM I only mentioned DRG, but now it covers many more and they are not all cyclical.

The sectors which may not set new highs are the DOW and the BIG HI-TECHS.

I have also stated and posted on the threads that I never considered the DOW as being the market, it is only 30 stocks. If one combines all the indexes I mentioned that has the probability of setting new highs together, it could be a better indicator of the overall market than the DOW and the BIG NASDAQ, but that could be argued. I guess the best would be how the SPX turns out which at this time I am not sure.

I have had many discussions with friends and investors who severely doubt that my system can work since I do not consider fundamentals in the actual calculations, I only consider fundamentals as a afterthought. I guess the only way one can argue with my analysis, since I do not consider fundamentals, is by the results or to actually argue on a mathematical basis the foundations of my actual formulas, which of course I will not disclose. What I mean is that you can have subjective beliefs based on concrete fundamentals which will go contrary to my TA, but I just would not be able to argue them on a fundamental basis, since I am not that tuned into fundamentals/news nor does my TA system incorporate such.

I am actually glad that you did comment so it gave me an opportunity to further explain my system and that those who follow my posts understand the limits of my system. As I have also indicated in the past, mainly on the IDEAS thread, is that I do mainly pure TA and it is for others to add on the fundamentals/news/etc, and then come to their own conclusion.

If for any reason I felt that I was a nuisance or detremental to the trading of others, I would feel it necessary to withdraw from futher postings. As of yet, I do not feel that way. Nancy, if you do please let me know.

Thankyou again for your comments since they were important to me.