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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: steve who wrote (4868)11/8/1997 3:00:00 PM
From: marvin smith  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26039
 
Steve, Brad, all, Isn't life wonderfull? Marvin



To: steve who wrote (4868)11/9/1997 5:27:00 PM
From: David  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26039
 
Some thoughts on another rainy Sunday . . .

First, Steve, thanks for the AOL postings. I know I had asked for skeptical or hostile postings from that thread, and you certainly have delivered.

What is striking about these messages is their frustration with stock price action and their lack of focus on underlying market developments. Oh -- and personal attacks. It's true that stock price and market development are related, but only over the long term, and the stock if anything will lag the underlying developments.

That's not to say that this thread is completely clean, either, but obviously we make a major effort to investigate what's going on out there.

I'm not convinced by the AOL doubters, since they fail to raise any true red flags. For instance, I would become concerned if IDX lost a patent fight; if IDX lost alliances; if government or corporate clients turned away from fingerscanning in favor of other biometric measurements; if IDX lost market share; if the general biometrics market started slowing down; if Randy Fowler started making bad strategic decisions; if the Lerach suit proves market manipulation.

I'm not concerned that IDX has been conservative in their press releases, or that Lerach has managed to sue IDX (quoting news stories in his complaint, not the most impressive legal research in the world), or that there's a real high PE on increasing revenues, or that once in a while a competitor snags a contract, or that the shorts have so far been successful in reducing option values to zero (I don't do options), or that SI is filled with raving optimists who try to support most of their opinions with relevant information, or that major corporations are expressing an interest in the biometric field (I would hope they would; one company can't do it alone), or that the BIG ONES always seem just over the horizon (By the way, has any one noticed there are more BIG ONES hanging out there than ever?), or -- most important to our frustrated colleagues, and perhaps Brad's Cabo plans -- that IDX willfully refuses to even get to $15.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see IDX going sideways for a number of months, or even a bit lower if the stock market drops. However, it's better to buy this kind of stock a little too early than a little too late. (I bought this year, so I can afford to be a bit more patient.) On the other hand, I expect big returns to begin a year or two from now, and then I'll want to see if biometrics simply blooms or just explodes. That answer has not come in yet. Then we'll see if IDX will ultimately be a $40 stock or (this one's for Brad, so please don't quote me) a $400 stock.



To: steve who wrote (4868)11/10/1997 7:39:00 AM
From: steve  Respond to of 26039
 
AOL 8 NOV 97

Subject: Re: NEC and Digital Biometrics
Date: Sat, Nov 8, 1997 18:43 EST
From: Doter1
Message-id: <19971108234301.SAA13524@ladder01.news.aol.com>

Ok, just a couple of thoughts.

If I was NEC and I was planning on using a lot of fingerprint readers in the next few years, I would spread my money around to more than one vendor. I would try to use IDX equipment and try to use others to keep the smaller weaker businesses in business. (i.e. try to keep DBII from going broke)

I buy things for a living. When there is just one vendor that has what I want, I pay high prices nearly every time.

Just a possiblity. I am just speculating. But, there would be some sound logic to such NEC tactics.

Also, to buy the competitor's product from time to time keeps your primary provider on his toes. A small purchase like that sends a message to your primary vendor like no other. You can trust me on that one. (One of my buddies bought some equipment from a competitor with no intention of ever using the equipment. He set it in a prominent place in his plant so his primary contractor was sure to see it when they came to visit! The games we play)

Again, this is just pure speculation on my part as to possible reasons for the DBII sale. If I was NEC, I would want DBII to stay-a-float!

Ken in MO

Subject: Re: mbenz, other story???
Date: Sat, Nov 8, 1997 22:15 EST
From: Mbenz59869
Message-id: <19971109031500.WAA02616@ladder02.news.aol.com>

Dawala

Thanks for the objective question. Here is the link to the page I am talking about:

identix.com

I would think that the touchlan would be completed by now. I can only speculate on what the touchcall might be. Investors have been waiting for over a year for these links to be completed. Is this top secret stuff or is it just a matter of lack of attention to details?

Doter1, your theory is a good one and does make sense. It is always good to have a competitive bid situation when you are a buyer. I hope that you are correct with your assessment! Thanks.

Subject: Annual Meeting
Date: Sat, Nov 8, 1997 23:30 EST
From: MargotL263
Message-id: <19971109043000.XAA10544@ladder01.news.aol.com>

Yes I went to the annual Meeting and it wasn't what i heard so much as what I saw that impressed me. Seventyfive percent of the Stockholders present were whitehaired spectacled gentlemen who have been around the block several times. One of these was a gentlemen who was delighted to tell me that he has attended every meeting for the last eleven years and he'll be back next year..Randy Fowler is truly a Ceo unlike any others I have run into..I was
impressed by his dedication, his precision and his meticulous presentation in detail of how the year has unfolded He spoke about IDX and Oracle.. an alliance to be sure but one which he had miscalculated....as to impact on the stock price..No apologies....He was precise and understood that no amount of chit chat was going to make the Oracle alignment anything more than tiny news..unfortunate but true. But he was very sure that the deals with the US
govt. and the Ohare airport are signs of biometric expansion to come. He offered no apologies but was satisfied that these new products and their applications would ultimately prove to be fruitful. That he had hoped for better earnings there was no doubt , however time is not the enemy...Hopefully by the end of next years meeting there will be profits...that are significant.. He is obvioulsy knwledgable and has he has many ideas about future
enhancements. For what its worth I was very pleased with the way he spoke and he was honest No fancy footwork but honest labor is what seems to count for something in his ledger, or on his turf.. He is modest and accurate and is precise. and his experience with good products at Hewlett Packard and the gentlemen who left HP with him are a testament to his quest for a place in the sun. He is not going to rush anywhere...or do anything rash or
foolish. yes the company is making money modest at the moment....Iwas fortunate enough to speak to him for a few moments after the meeting and also met the director who was responsible for the capitalization of Identix...He was quite emphatic about his belief that this small company will be incredibly sucessful. What I see ia ameticulous scientist an inventor who has a product that has been carefully designed and developed. It would be out of
character for him to deviate from his perceived path of action. Will Randy Fowler find success Yes.... he certainly will. for he is careful and not in a rush.
Our board on the other hand is in a rush....Sure we all want to make money and profits....and so does Identix...They will I believe succeed.
I apologize for my late reply...and if you have specific queries let me know...

MagotL263

Subject: Is that the best you can do?
Date: Sat, Nov 8, 1997 23:33 EST
From: IDX4EVER
Message-id: <19971109043300.XAA10311@ladder02.news.aol.com>

Brutusone - You are so profound. Please enlighten us with the basis of your tax loss selling theory. It was my understanding that the best candidates for tax loss selling are stocks that are down 50% or more from their annual highs. It is my understanding that IDX's high was around 13 5/8 which means we are currently down 25% to 30% from the year's high and probably pretty close to the middle of the trading range IDX has been in all
year. Hint - Using large colored letters does not add credibility to your idiotic babblings.

Mbenz59869 - I respect you for declaring your short position. Regarding your wish to have been short the past year and one-half, doesn't the stock have to go down and stay down to make money on a long-term short? I do not post all day long, in fact I seldom post anymore except to straighten out others misleading or misinformed posts. We are declared long holders. It is our objective to learn as many facts as possible about the company we
believe will lead the next explosion in the computer industry. We get our information through hard work - extensive web searching, e-mails or phone calls to biometric industry players. Most of the time we quote our source to establish the information's credibility. EPS estimates are just that - estimates. I feel fairly comfortable with the range of my earnings estimates. I have no idea what the future PE ratio will be. Nobody else does either. I
don't predict stock prices - short-term or long-term, hopefully just the direction.

What aliens did you think I offended? I have recently chastised many on SI for straying from the facts toward cyberbabble posts. What exactly does that say about me? Just pick one of the volumes.

Please provide a link to a post where you think I have hyped IDX or I have posted an unsupportable statement. Good Luck. Also please provide the FACTS supporting the other side of the story. I am perfectly willing to discuss and refute them if they are wrong or impertinent.

I agree with your comments about the short sellers ruling IDX for the past year, but nothing lasts forever.

NdTOTO2 - I also challenge you to find a specific post of mine which includes hype. I only attack concerned, disgruntled posters who, like you , are too lazy to research facts for themselves and would rather post inflammatory statements about the perceived current hopeless situation in the hope that some of us more motivated holders will do the work for you.

It is not my job to correct every incorrect post on AOL and SI. The Bill Lerach class action lawsuit continues as Randy described in the conference call and has been chronicled on SI. I have read the complaint from start to finish. I do not know all the facts about the case but believe that Lerach will have a hard time proving that IDX's stock price drop from $19 was due to an alleged revenue recognition snafu that had ZERO effect on the fiscal
year's net income after restatement and nothing to do with the Comparator Systems debacle which affected ALL biometric stocks in the industry. Look at the charts.

I don't think the fat lady has sung over the recent NEC/IDX/DBII issue. Besides, if IDX had gotten the 13 machine contract everybody would have yawned. When DBII claims to have the contract, it supposedly signifies the beginning of DBII's resurgence - hogwash! Also, I believe the NEC naysayer was sanctioned by his own employer. Would he really give up because we got mad at him? This was also before the NEC-21 livescanner, which is built on a TP-600
chasis. Use your brain for something more than a seat cushion on this one.

Check our reality with FACTS, not accusations or repeated questions of concern when the answers have been posted several times already.

What specifically is your lawsuit question? I will humor you this time and answer to the best of my knowledge.

Subject: Re: Is that the best you can do?
Date: Sat, Nov 8, 1997 23:42 EST
From: D030296
Message-id: <19971109044201.XAA11639@ladder01.news.aol.com>

As far as those considered shorts through writing calls... you could have made just as much money writing puts as calls in the past year

Subject: Re: mbenz, thx
Date: Sat, Nov 8, 1997 23:49 EST
From: MD1554
Message-id: <19971109044900.XAA11891@ladder02.news.aol.com>

mbenz...thanks for your reply.

<<<....I do think that IDX is a good company with a great future IF the company is able to execute viable business plans. As far as the stockholders are concerned, we are not IMO going to do well if the company does not do a better job of communicating with the investor...>>>

Point taken.

Years ago I heard Charlie Rose interview Larry Ellison, and he said something that sticks with me...Rose was asking Ellison alot of questions about Microsoft/Bill Gates,...and Ellison said (I'm Paraphrasing) "Let me say this about Microsoft....there are alot of companies out there with better technology and many people that are much much smarter than Gates....but, the thing that Gates has is vision and a plan....and he can communicate that vision
better than anyone....and ontop of that, he is driven and relentless."

That sort of sticks with me and I'm not quite sure what it has to do with IDX and Randy Fowler other than the fact that their communication skills are indeed less than stellar...and that (like everything else in business) trickles down fom the top.

Best to you.

Subject: Re: IDX TA Nov 7
Date: Sat, Nov 8, 1997 23:52 EST
From: MD1554
Message-id: <19971109045200.XAA12083@ladder02.news.aol.com>

Wow, what the hell did I just read...my heads still spinning :-)

Subject: Re: Is that the best you can do?
Date: Sat, Nov 8, 1997 23:54 EST
From: D030296
Message-id: <19971109045400.XAA12300@ladder02.news.aol.com>

Brutsome. Are you still hyping AMD? I'd go back and find the post, but I'm not that mean. Just hope you can take what you dish out, because it sure makes you look silly to bash a stock like IDX and then go hype on the AMD board when you are clueless. Ohh by the way. Where are the chips???? I hear Frito Lay may buy them out soon.

Subject: Re: IDX TA Nov 7
Date: Sat, Nov 8, 1997 23:58 EST
From: MD1554
Message-id: <19971109045800.XAA13129@ladder01.news.aol.com>

You can't be serious...I'll interpret the TA in plain English:

"Graph lines will change when the stock price moves."

Hopes this makes better sense.

Have a good day. :-)