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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ira-gold who wrote (87787)	8/11/2010 11:49:52 AM
From: donc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 109057

..Grantham is going with the sweet spot of the 4 year election cycle.. ..from the Sep/Oct low (or maybe the July 1010 SPX low) the next 11 months are virtually straight up usually for gains of upwards of 30% ..i don't see it myself but that's what history says.. donc

To: Ira-gold who wrote (87787)	8/11/2010 3:39:35 PM
From: rich evans	Respond to of 109057

I do not see deflation or recession based on the latest Fed statements. A slowdown in growth is not recession but a weak recovery. And the Fed said they were going to take the proceeds from MBS and maybe more to buy Government Treasuries. This is printing of money and called Seigniorage. This will increase the money supply. The MBS buying did not increase the money supply, only the monetary base. Since the banks did not loan, their was no money multiplier to increase money supply from the MBS buying. Now there will be as the government will certainly spend all the money they can. Rich

To: Ira-gold who wrote (87787)	8/12/2010 5:57:17 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 109057

Good for you to reverse course and see the real trend. The other trend you should be aware of will be the persistent rise in value of the US Dollar against goods and other currencies. To the extent that the Fed does not prevent the rise in value of the US Dollar, Blue Chip stocks will continue to decline or stagnate in US Dollar terms. When we were in the midst of the credit bubble, additional US Dollars (debts) were being created at a rapid rate which devalued Dollars relative to goods and other currencies. These were the years I kept our money in Australian Dollars. The nominal price of US real estate prices zoomed-up while the value of the US Dollar was being cut in half. Now that the credit bubble is collapsing, there is a shortage of US Dollars relative to things and other currencies. Essentially every US Dollar debtor is short the US Dollar. So the value of the US Dollar is rising against goods and other currencies. It's like being in a carnival fun house of distorted mirrors. It's difficult to measure what's happening if the length of your ten foot measuring tape alternately shrinks or lengthens. Every time you measure the same table with your funny measuring tape the table has a different height. .