To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (7715 ) 11/8/1997 4:47:00 PM From: Mang Cheng Respond to of 25814
Here is the Barron's article : ******************************************************************* "SIZING UP SMALL CAPS" By Rhonda Brammer (97/11/10) Except by the most liberal of definitions (more liberal than ours), Milpitas, California-based with a stock-market value of about $3 billion -- is not a small-cap. But it's getting there. Not long ago, LSI's market value was nearly $9 billion. Shares have fallen from 62 1/2 to 22 and change. Third-quarter earnings were weak and last month LSI forecast a lousy fourthquarter. LSI is the global leader in application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) that go into everything from Sun workstations to Sony's Playstations. "When the hockey player skates over the blue line on a Playstation," explains Black, "an LSI ASIC is in there." In fact, Sony contributes about 20% of LSI's sales, and there's always the worry, Black readily admits, that the popular Playstations go the way of Cabbage Patch Kids and Tickle Me Elmo dolls. LSI's current troubles, however, are broad-based. Orders are slowing and prices softening, even as the company bears the costs of a huge new fabrication plant to come on stream mid-1998. For all of '97, LSI will report about $1.10 a share, Black figures, roughly flat with last year's $1.12 but sharply down from the $1.86 it earned in '95. He's looking for $1.35-$1.40 in '98. But why he's buying LSI shares and believes the stock could be a "home run" are prospects for '99: The new facility could boost sales to $3 billion from about $1.2 billion currently, and LSI could earn $2.10 a share. "And that's conservative," he insists, noting his model assumes operating margins of 22%, far below the 26.5% at the last peak. "Once you start filling the fab, it's like an airline -- you fill those incremental seats and it all goes to the bottom line." But what if LSI doesn't fill the plant? If you had a worldwide slump -- "if the stock tanked" -- it'd sell around 14-15, Black reckons. Book is $11 and LSI has more cash than debt. On the upside, if in 12 to 18 months Wall Street sees earnings of $2-plus for '99, LSI could, Black feels, double from here. ********************************************************************* Mang