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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TideGlider who wrote (89043)	8/11/2010 1:19:37 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 224729

<<Most also believe it is at least somewhat likely that Republicans will win control of both houses of Congress in the upcoming elections>> Only 34% know that it was Bush who signed the TARP bill.

To: TideGlider who wrote (89043)	8/12/2010 11:38:34 AM
From: Peter Dierks	1 Recommendation Respond to of 224729

Can the Republicans Win Back the Senate? I Do the Math. William Galston August 10, 2010 \| 4:41 pm Last month I published a piece suggesting that while the odds of a Republican takeover of the Senate were not high, the possibility could no longer be ignored. My article was not well received. Critics argued that (among my many sins), I had cherry-picked surveys, given credence to the (allegedly) fatally flawed Rasmussen results, and worst of all, ignored Nate Silver’s superior methodology. In the ensuing four weeks, a number of articles arguing roughly what I did have appeared. The publication today of a new survey from the conservative group American Crossroads offers an opportunity to revisit the issue. Because the American Crossroads poll uses samples of only 100 from each of thirteen key Senate races, we can learn little about the individual contests. Of more significance is the overall finding, which essentially replicates Stan Greenberg’s, that respondents find various versions of the generic Republican narrative more persuasive than the competing Democratic arguments. The Republicans this year are campaigning with the wind in their sails. If some Democrats in tight races survive, it will be because they have managed to tack skillfully in these adverse conditions. So what of the individual races? The overall picture is this: Democrats begin with 44 safe and 4 likely seats, for a total of 48, while Republicans begin with 34 safe seats and 4 likely. That leaves 14 seats in play that will decide the control of the Senate. If Democrats win just 2 and Joe Lieberman continues to caucus with them, Vice President Biden’s tie-breaking vote will enable them to maintain control. Conversely, Republicans need to win at least twelve out of 14 (with a complication I’ll return to). The following table summarizes where we are now as we await the results of the Colorado primary contests. ... Message 26750155