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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (268259)	8/11/2010 3:50:47 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 306849

Implications and US policy One need look no further than the stubbornly high unemployment rates in the US and other advanced economies to be convinced how important it is to develop a better understanding of the growth prospects for the decade ahead. We have presented evidence – in a multi-country sample spanning about two centuries – suggesting that high levels of debt dampen growth. One can argue that the US can tolerate higher levels of debt than other countries without having its solvency called into question. That is probably so.10 (see Reinhart and Reinhart 2007). We have shown in our earlier work that a country’s credit history plays a prominent role in determining what levels of debt it can sustain without landing on a sovereign debt crisis. More to the point of this paper, however, we have no comparable evidence yet to suggest that the consequences of higher debt levels for growth will be different for the US than for other advanced economies. It is an issue yet to be explored. Figure 4, which plots total (public and private) credit market debt outstanding for the US during 1916 to 2010:Q1 makes this point clear.11 Despite considerable deleveraging by the private financial sector, total debt remains near its historic high in 2008. Total public sector debt during the first quarter of 2010 is 117% of GDP. It has only been higher during a one-year stint at 119% in 1945. Perhaps soaring US debt levels will not prove to be a drag on growth in the decades to come. However, if history is any guide, that is a risky proposition and over-reliance on US exceptionalism may only prove to be one more example of the “This Time is Different” syndrome.12 For many if not most advanced countries, dismissing debt concerns at this time is tantamount to ignoring the proverbial elephant in the room. voxeu.org

To: tejek who wrote (268259)	8/11/2010 3:57:09 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

When did the 8k and 6k tax breaks expire?

To: tejek who wrote (268259)	8/11/2010 4:32:53 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

i a have policy, IGNORE all arguments by NAR, they are an extreme self-interest group--they were CLOWN HILARIOUS on the going up and on the going down. When did they start, "we think the cprection is over mid 2008"???????????????Max