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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (9353)	11/8/1997 7:41:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Dwight, I appreciate you reluctance to predict the economic direction of our country. I hope I am not 'prediting', but rather pointing out a scenario that I feel is becoming more and more possible. As for statements of some like this: " I would agree with your assumptions if DOW was supported by inflated assets what I call as' hot money" I can only believe that like many, they are out of touch with what has been (not so obviously?) going on around the world. A man walked into my brokers office last week and put 10 grand on his credit card for stocks and then put the full available amount on margin. An quarter hour later an elderly woman put an additional 20 grand spread over several cards (she had 20 grand on the card already) in the market. When my broker suggested that she pay off her debt first, she said that it was OK because she would do that with the profits from her stocks. Now I ask, is that an 'inflated" asset? And it is more common than you think. Frontline did a whole special on this type 'market bubble' a year of so ago. Also, if inflation is still the problem, Bonds and Gold indicating it. Gold stocks hit a new lows on Friday and yields continue to fall. Check out the chart of ABX and see if you see if that 'trend' has shown up yet. The market is not in agreement with the inflation scenario, regardless of what I or anyone else might think or hope for. Finally, Boeing and LSI just announced impact from (LSI I believed already mentioned layoffs) the Asian crisis. I know there are others, but I don't remember specifics. I believe a list of several was posted on this or the Mohan thread recently. Also a couple of friends from IBM suggested they were seeing certain divisions having the same problem to look forward to there. This scenario will have to 'unwind' and I doubt it will hit anyone like a ton of bricks in the form of a crash etc. B.