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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1582)	11/9/1997 12:07:00 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2754

Here is another way of looking at the semi-equip stock action for the year starting in April. I reviewed the charts of the 37 stocks I have been reporting on these pages. By "eyeballing" these charts, a case can be made for the start of the nice rally in the middle to end of April. I then chose the closing price on 4/25/97 as the starting point. Below is a table of closing prices on a weekly basis, starting with 6/6/97 and ending Friday, 11/7. The first entry in the table is from 4/25/97 to capture the full extent of the rally and subsequent decline in the semi-equip stocks. CUM CLOSING SUM PERCENT PERCENT PRICE CLOSING GAIN/ GAIN/ DATE PRICES LOSS LOSS 04/25/97 668 06/06/97 879 32 32 06/13/97 844 -4 28 06/20/97 876 4 31 06/27/97 893 2 33 07/04/97 939 5 38 07/11/97 1010 8 46 07/18/97 1061 5 51 07/25/97 1097 3 54 08/01/97 1115 2 56 08/08/97 1141 2 58 08/15/97 1152 1 59 08/22/97 1267 10 69 08/29/97 1269 0 70 09/05/97 1298 2 72 09/12/97 1293 0 71 09/19/97 1302 1 72 09/26/97 1284 -1 71 10/03/97 1288 0 71 10/10/97 1284 0 71 10/17/97 1103 -14 57 10/24/97 961 -13 44 10/31/97 911 -5 39 11/07/97 937 3 41 In the 6 week interval from 4/25 to 6/6, the overall gain was 32 percent. The market continued up for the next several weeks through the week of 8/22. Then it essentially stagnated through the week of 10/10. In hindsight, that was the time to bail out (or even much sooner). The week of 10/31 saw a slowing of the precipitous decline and last week a small gain. This may be just a "bounce"? Have we seen the bottom yet, or do we have another downward leg ahead of us? Don W.