Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pennsylvania Senate: Toomey (R) 46%, Sestak (D) 37%
Tuesday, August 17, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.AdvertisementThe latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Republican Pat Toomey picking up 46% support, while his Democratic opponent Joe Sestak earns the vote from 37%. Five percent (5%) prefer a different candidate, and 12% are undecided.
In every survey conducted this year, Toomey's support has stayed in the range of 42% to 47% of the vote. Aside from a brief surge in support following his mid-May primary victory over incumbent Senator Arlen Specter, Sestak's support has fallen in a narrow 36% to 40% range since tracking began in February.
Last month, Toomey led Sestak 45% to 39%.
When leaners are included in the totals, Toomey's lead slips one point. With the leaners, 48% favor Toomey and 40% Sestak. This is the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in Pennsylvania to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.
Early in any campaign, the number without leaners is generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matters more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the number with leaners as the primary indicator of the campaign
With this latest survey, Pennsylvania shifts from Toss-Up to Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power summary.
Sixty-seven percent (67%) of the supporters for both candidates say they are already certain how they will vote.
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The statewide survey of 750 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on August 16, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers from the state's gubernatorial contest later this week. Additional data from the survey will be released during the coming week at RasmussenReports.com/Pennsylvania.
Toomey is backed by 82% of Republican voters, while Sestak earns the vote from 66% of Democrats. Toomey holds a nearly two-to-one advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
Just seven percent (7%) of Pennsylvania voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 61% say it's poor. While 22% say economic conditions are getting better, 54% believe they are getting worse. Those results are on a par with views nationwide.
Sixty-four percent (64%) of the larger group that believes the economy is worsening support Toomey. Sestak earns the vote from 74% of those who believe the economy is improving.
Toomey is viewed Very Favorably by 23% of Pennsylvania voters and Very Unfavorably by 12%.
Sestak's reviews are 16% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
Forty-three percent (43%) of Pennsylvania voters approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 56% disapprove. This is in line with voter sentiments nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed Senate races in Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. |
