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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (7717)	11/9/1997 12:49:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

OSO I think LSI is going to be hurting until those inventory numbere start going down! How's that for a dumb answer. And one that will more than likely be too late as an indicator to be useful. I'd like to see LSI's revenue for Q1. If it does not hit the 350 million level things will be getting a lot worse. LSI is no longer the speedy kid of the 1993-1995 era. They invented the custom library business (some would say they invented the ASIC business) and early on in spite of jettisoning old businesses they grew impressively. Now I think they are too big to not be affected by industry trends. Still did you see that one of the industry groups is going to be creating a system-on-a-chip category. My understanding is that the anticipated growth rates are still very high in the sytem-on-a-chip arena. I'd start buying for the l/t but only if the prices are dirt cheap ($19 or below). Right now I'd be gambling without knowing the odds (the company shrouds everything in secrecy). Ideally $15 - $16 - O I'm salivating at the prospect. Probably a pipe dream. On the other side of the coin , remember M. Murphy's thing about buying tech stocks during thanksgiving! I'm still waiting for the AMAT conference call - I hope they say no slowdown for the industry in general. Like I've said before I'd be very surprised if they indicate trouble near term. In turn this would imply that tech stocks rebound after the call. Not sure. But always like to throw in something hopeful. It would be interesting to study the last slowdown (inventories) and see if what's happening now is a replay of that or if this is all fake and things are a lot better than they seem (for the industry in general, not LSI, which is undoubtedly hurting - no need to sugar coat this unfortunately). Another thing to think about - when the semi people hurt typically the disk drive people do well and conversely when the drive people hurt the semis do well (from Dr. Zafiropoulo - UTEK's CEO). The disk drive guys have started showing weaknesses (first SEG, then WDC and many of the component makers HTCH, APM etc) while the semi industry is expanding (look at industry sales the last few months). So maybe what's going on in the semis is a "fake". Also the guys who do the contracting business for the semi-equip people seem to be doing well and have not indicated any sign of a slowdown. More questions than answers unfortunately. Not closely connected to the semi industry to make an accurate assessment. I'll be checking the change in inventories over the past few quarters for the last few quarters for a number of companies and post the details of what I find here. Maybe we can uncover something. !!ELO