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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (81372)	8/21/2010 12:47:46 PM
From: ChinuSFO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 149317

This Administration is still appearing very inexperienced even though they have very smart and intelligent folks including the President himself. They have succumbed to pressures and acted in haste on some occasions such as the order to close Gitmo and the rescinding it, making the comment on the Cambridge case and then relenting with a beer summit, the not so well thought out comment on the Cordoba center, and it now seems the drilling ban that was issued and the decision to not pursue it further after a judge lifted the ban. A lesson learnt from this is that at least in the initial years in office ex-Governors make better Presidents than ex-Congressmen with some exceptions (Bush and Carter) ======================================== U.S. officials saw drilling ban costing jobs: report WASHINGTON \| Fri Aug 20, 2010 10:32pm EDT WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senior U.S. officials expected the deepwater drilling ban to cost about 23,000 jobs and hold up $10.2 billion in investments, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing federal documents. The Obama administration issued the initial moratorium in late May after the huge BP Plc oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The ban spurred opposition from oil companies and local lawmakers who said it would exact a heavy toll in jobs and hurt crude production in coming years. After a federal judge threw out the original ban partly on grounds it was economically unjustified, the Interior Department issued a new moratorium on July 12, barring new oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico through November 30. ...contd at reuters.com

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (81372)	8/23/2010 1:25:59 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 149317

There have been a number of figures given out by various government flow groups, all of which came out at different times in the timeline. What I am saying is that, at the end of the day, the government and BP will come to a mutually agreed upon figure for the flow rate, either amicably over a conference table, or imposed upon them after court proceedings. Either way, the final results will make almost everybody unhappy except for Cassandra da Rat, who will get another chance to say, "You should have listened to Cassandra da Rat. If the verdict was a simple "guilty of 60,000K/day, pay fine" or "not guilty of 60K/day, no fine at all, this part of the story is finished", even I could get BP off the hook, either as a lawyer or as the expert witness. Reasonable doubt would be so EZ to create. For instance, the largest well ever in the Gulf only produced like 40K BPD; maybe 50,but I can't remember. Should be pretty easy to convince folks the chances of this well, with a partially functioning BOP and with the well partially blocked by the drill string, exceeded that for over 3 months. When this is finished, there will be a nice flow curve generated by the data at hand, beginning with zero on the first day. After that, everything is a guess, but the situation was always a lot more dynamic than most people realize. Due to the presence of sand in the mixture, parts of the BOP were being eroded. The GOR, gas/oil ratio, was changing over time, and, IIRC, the percentage of gas was a lot higher earlier in the process than towards the end. Many of the interventions caused an increase in the flow. For instance, cutting the riser may have increased the flow by 20%. Here's one pretty good scenario from early June. Message 26601490 This was before the second ship was brought in to flare off the gas and oil. I think they was collecting or flaring around 25K BPD, and people doing the avid watching were reporting noticeably decreased flows at that point. I'd guess that the ultimate peak flow, after the cap and the LRMP was removed for a day or 2, will end up less than 45 K BPD, and that the total volume released will be less than half of what people are currently speculating.