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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: virgil vancleave who wrote (10224)	11/9/1997 1:23:00 PM
From: Herb Melcher	Respond to of 12298

I was long on APM most of this summer and fall. When I first purchased APM (at around $24) I intended it to be a long term holding. As time passed and I learned more about APM from this board and other sources I became increasingly uneasy about the stock. I ended up selling at a profit, but then would be drawn back, like a moth to a flame, each time and repurchase. I had a series of trades with an overall profit, but losing money on the last two in September and October. I had thought that even if APM was behind on MR technology it wasn't that important. I believed that TFI technology would remain a good cash cow and earnings provider for at least another year. Recent announcements by WDC, RDRT, and others, including this week's Barrons article make me now convinced TFI is dead. We don't know where APM stands with regard to MR technology. The only qualification notice I have seen is for a low volume portable application. I haven't seen any desk top qualifications. I agree APM may become a good buy and may be considerably higher a year from now, but there is no urgency to leap in. The market is not going to be favorable to APM until there is distinct evidence that they are not behind on MR technology. The downside risk of being long is currently much greater than the risk of missing the upside by being out of the stock, in my opinion. "Blood in the streets" is a relative term. What looks "bloody" today might be regarded as the good old days in a week or so. Also, you state APM may not drop as fast as others in the industry. Maybe you should take a look at another industry.