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To: Getcher who wrote (13776)	11/9/1997 7:06:00 AM
From: current trend	Respond to of 50167

Very interesting and convincing --- it appears we are going to retest the lows! CT

To: Getcher who wrote (13776)	11/9/1997 10:01:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Getcher- This market has one peculiarity which no other market in history ever had this is a market driven by earnings and exponential growth in corporate profits- co-relationship with earlier years may have some significance but 1955 in economic cycle was at a different stage- with the kind of economic strength we are seeing I doubt that aggregate S&P corporate earnings will not show improvement unlike previous cycles where corporate earnings were a function of rising prices and passing the price hike to consumer, on the contrary this cycle has seen stable prices although demand has remained. Strong corporate profits source is lower interest rates and cutting of expense and waste downlayering restructrisatrion cutting of fiscal defecits and competitiveness all together have given US this unique position to rank as one of the model economies and oasis of stabilty- the market had many reasons to break thru the 6800 level but it did not even try that- when market was falling and testing 6900 during the first hour of the opening it was not that sellers were locked out it waas buyers who could not reach there brokers to 'bottom fish'- the lows shown on the ticker remained only wishes ' I could get my order filled at that level'. I see a lot similarity with this and April 760 on S&P I can see your point however what I have seen at test of lows is not dearth of buyers it is dearth of sellers, we need to see a major break in MO GE G's Banks and Drugs now that techs has been so badly for this market to test 7200- I will keep a close watch of DRG and Banking index- on impact of ASEANs you will notice that present devaluations and skimming of valuations in ASEA will not have a major impact on US markets- I draw your attention to Japan in 1995 when Nekkei tested 14500 the all time lows since than lot of water has passed under the bridges Japanese banks have slowly built up their corporate assets which suffered as result of long bear market in Japan- bear markets in Japan has their roots in adamant Japanese insistence on keeping their domestic demand under artificial controls- locking up bulk of countries domestic saving in non-performing postal savings and keeping competition out of financial sector- perhaps as result the economy remains entrenched in a mini recession but country as whole is net exporter of capital- unfortunately thios net exports remains a neccesity because of lack of demand on domestic front. If I see from Japanese last test od lows I can make one comparison and that since 1995 we had one of the best bull markets leg in history of equities- so if Japanese low threaten world economic stability we should seen some negative consequences post last test of lows. Gyrations in emerging markets is lifeblood for them in my opinion Banks will take a hit on property sectors but the export led economies will be more efficient and productive- they will export more price stability to OECD- I don't see that world will be enveloped in a cycle of deflation because I think Europe after a very long period of slow down is now coming out of its slumber and pillars of growth in Europe are firmly in place- Germany and UK both raise interest rates which signals a strong industrial output and consumer led demand- Various scenerios are being painted one is people losing Jobs and unable to pay their mortgages I think the problem last Friday was not lack of Jobs but rather too much of them- once this is answered the other issue raised is level of earnings- I take this argument of reduced earnings and standard of living with a pinch of salt because what I see in my recent trip was that main beneficiary of this economic boom has been people at lower rung of poverty ladder- If you remember Ross Perot and Nafta it was claimed that Jobs will be stolen from Americans if Nafta is approved after a period of three years we see that without inmporting cheap durable goods from ASEANS and Nafta countries the positive element within the economy that of importing price stability as a result of cheaper imports in absence of such imports would bring severe wage pressures- by trade-off of manual dirty industry with emerging world US benefitted by becoming number 1 in exporting Planes and Hi Techs- the growth of service industry and leisure industry has employed millions of those who would other wise be stiching or cobbling, I see fundamentally no change in last few months to warrant a bear market and unlike others who have doubts about direction and trends of markets I remain fundamentally believer of 'equities correction' and turnaround to 7800 with in a month as last quarter earning visiblity (which traditionally is a strong quarter) increases, any interim movements are ocassions to drub the bears. If INTC who has highest manufacturing exposure in ASEA would day beofre yesterday have painted a gloomy picture I could have imagined a wicked turn coming our way at the moment this is perfectly a legitimate move within a bull trend and significant issue is higher lows, all said I believe we may see some stability tonight and expect Nekkei to shrug the dismal performance and try to make an attempt to close above 16000 - for me a close below 16000 will be bearish for DOW and I will certainly recommend short term 870 puts but a close above 16000 is a positive indicator- sorry for such a long message but my view on this ,arkets are well known with a 90/10 longish bias no if and buta about it- for me lows are opportuniites and market will have forgotten all this by Dec15th.

To: Getcher who wrote (13776)	11/9/1997 11:34:00 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Andy & Thread: In case anyone is interested in the wash sale rules if they are comptemplating selling some shares of a loss position for year end tax planning to match some losses with realized gains. In accordance with Internal Revenue Code 1091(a) and Regulation 1.1091-1(a) - No loss deduction is allowed for any loss from any sale or other disposition of stock or securities (including contracts or options to acquire or sell stock or securities) if within a period beginning 30 days before and ending 30 days after the sale the taxpayer acquires, or has entered into a contract or option to acquire, substantially identical stock or securities. Losses on the sale of stock or securities (or contract or option to acquire or sell such) are not deductible if, within a period beginning 30 days before the date of the sale and ending 30 days after the date of the sale, the taxpayer acquires or has entered into a contract or option to acquire stock or securities that are substantially identical. Example: June 1: Taxpayer buys 100 shares of Corp A stock for $15 per share.Dec. 2: Taxpayer buys 100 shares of Corp A stock for $10 per share.Dec. 30: Taxpayer sells the 100 shares of Corp A stock bought on June 1 for $10 per share realizing a $500 loss.Result: No loss deduction allowed because substantially identical stock was purchased less than 30 days before the sale. The same result would occur if the second purchase (Dec. 2) had been made on the following Jan. 29. Just in case you wanted to sell and rebuy within 30 days. Best regards, Tim