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To: Gottfried who wrote (49082)8/22/2010 7:33:42 PM
From: Sam1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95616
 
Yes, it's partly fear of that. But it is also--for me, anyway--partly expectation. I've seen some of these stocks sit and sit and sit, then the psychology changes in a flash, they zoom--either up or down. I don't see them moving down any time soon--they seem too cheap to me. Of course, if the bottom does fall out of the economy, they can look expensive in a hurry, but so will everything else.

I dunno, I was around in August of '82. Yeah, I know stocks were trading at mid-single digit PEs then. But, still, they sat and languished at those levels. Then, BOOM, they went up. There were a oouple of 9-1 days, the Dow was at, I think, around 600-700, John Templeton was treated as a wild-eyed loony tune guy whose time had passed for predicting 3000 on the Dow with a few years on WSW and in print. The employment reports have been holding us down, at some point, they will change for the better, IMHO, and the market will just take off. People are nervous about the market and the economy, but they also hate the yields they are getting. It won't take much to get them to put money in the market once the employment numbers shift, and there is a lot of cash on the sidelines.

JMHO.



To: Gottfried who wrote (49082)8/22/2010 7:37:23 PM
From: Sam1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95616
 
Just one more data point: WLI flat to slightly down, but growth rate flat to slightly up in the latest week.

WLI Growth Ticks Up
Reuters
August 20, 2010
businesscycle.com

(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 3-week low in the latest week, confirming the slow pace of the recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 120.8 in the week ending August 20 from 122 the previous week.

That was the lowest since July 23, when it was 120.7.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 10 percent from minus 10.2 percent a week earlier. That was the highest since July 9, when it stood at minus 9.8 percent.

"With the WLI staying essentially flat for the last six weeks, following a nine-week plunge, it is premature to predict a new recession, though risks remain," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.



To: Gottfried who wrote (49082)8/22/2010 10:17:14 PM
From: Woody_Nickels  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95616
 
G, manage your fear with options.
You know the ropes.

Woody