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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (49121)	8/25/2010 11:22:57 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95573

Hi Bob, I found this article this morning from CNBC. <<Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg Published: Tuesday, 24 Aug 2010 \| 11:23 AM ET By: Jeff Cox Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions "a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession," and notes that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered "euphoric response." "Such is human nature and nobody can be blamed for trying to be optimistic; however, in the money management business, we have a fiduciary responsibility to be as realistic as possible about the outlook for the economy and the market at all times," he said. The 1929-33 recession saw six quarterly bounces in GDP with an average gain of 8 percent, sending the stock market to a 50 percent rally in early 1930 as investors thought the worst had passed. "False premise," Rosenberg said. "And guess what? We may well be reliving history here. If you're keeping score, we have recorded four quarterly advances in real GDP, and the average is only 3%." Rosenberg's warning comes as a slew of major analysts—Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan among them—have slashed GDP projections for 2010 to the 1.5 to 2 percent range. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said in a speech Tuesday that the risk of a double-dip recession has escalated. He said government programs to help distressed homeowners have been ineffective and aren't helping the pivotal housing sector recover. The dour outlooks come on the same day that the National Association of Realtors said home sales reached a 15-year low in June, dousing hopes that the industry had reached a bottoming point. Rosenberg points out that the "overall economic malaise" has come despite aggressive efforts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy through rate cuts. The central bank itself has scaled back its economic projections, has held steady on its balance sheet, and could be announcing another round of quantitative easing measures at its Jackson Hole summit this week. "How's that for a reality check," Rosenberg said. "It's not too late, by the way, to shift course if you have stayed long this market.">> cnbc.com

To: robert b furman who wrote (49121)	8/25/2010 12:16:09 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95573

Another piece of the puzzle. I read yesterday that existing housing sales fell the most since July 1995. That was a great time to buy a house. I try to buy/move when homes are down to lock in a lower property tax base rate since it can only go up 2% a year MAX in CA. I bought my current home in a very nice area in Silicon Valley in late 1994 at between 25% and 32% off the peak price for a 4b/2b/0.25acre 40 yr old home from original owner, not remodeled or expanded. Real estate here bottomed sometime in 1995... now I learn that is when existing home sales fell the most... Semi stocks had a great 1995... while housing here was bottoming. Semi valuations have not been as good since... Housecleaning in congress gave us gridlock in 1996 and we had several years of double digit S&P gains. Difference this time is the tech stocks have a ton of cash and huge dividends compared to the zero they paid. IBM bottomed in 1993 ... I loaded (doubled) up at about $11... still have most of those IBM shares but original investment out to diversify... Now Intel, MSFT, LLTC, ALTR, etc..... have a great dividend and bundles of cash to either repurchase shares or other companies once they see the economy turn for sure... not phony, but needed, stimulus. Do we hear history rhyming? Kirk