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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elllk who wrote (9381)	11/9/1997 12:33:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 94695

RE: "many product cycles occurred in the Industrial Revolution or so far in the Computer Revolution but I would be very interested in any educated guesses..." I would guess that history will not label a period as the "Computer Revolution." Rather, there will probably be a longer, more comprehensive period called the "Technology Revolution." If there is a "Computer Revolution," we are probably near the end of the period. It's getting to the point where there is a computer in every home. Many families own computers because it is the "thing to do." They really do not need a computer. Rather, they are using the computer to play video games, create greeting cards, etc. The future will incorporate semiconductors, processors, etc., into many other non-computer components. Examples are robots, control systems, etc. So, if you are asking about the "Computer revolution," I say it's almost over. If you are asking about the "Technology revolution" it is just beginning - it will change our lives over the next 25 years. Best wishes, I2

To: Elllk who wrote (9381)	11/9/1997 4:55:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 94695

Hi Larry, Thank you for your kind comment. I agree with you that the 60 year cycle following the industrial revolution has ended, but that was not the computer revolution, that was the transition period between the industrial revolution and the coming computer revolution. Turing's paper published in 1936, "On Computable Numbers" and Shannon's link between symbolic logic and electric circuits are landmarks and set into motion the transition period, a developmental phase, which ran its 50-60 year course. That transition period has ended and a new period has begun. I believe the information and computer revolution is now beginning, e.g., computers, internet, and so on. This new cycle should take us into the year 2050 or so. This is why I believe the markets may travel much further than we can currently imagine. Yes, we are susceptible to anniversary fears pertaining to the markets and excesses need to be worked off, but I believe we're entering new territory and this is what makes it very different than times before. When we stand back from the trees a little bit, this emerging computer revolution becomes more apparent and the market's potential advance from these levels appears more promising. It is enormous. Have a great week! GZ