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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (65732)	8/25/2010 11:11:33 AM
From: posthumousone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218194

isnt there an importan treasury auction today?

To: carranza2 who wrote (65732)	8/25/2010 6:32:02 PM
From: TobagoJack	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218194

my mama was a part time employee of some public entity, took early retirement offer 20+ years ago. it took several readings for her to understand the offer, permanent and full time pay, indexed to cpi, until death. the time to understand the offer was commensurate with the outrageousness of the offer. in the mean time, just in in-tray, from the austrian master one day bonds will crash, but they could go to new all time lows in yields first (i'm referring to US government bonds, specifically). in spite of the huge rally they've had, they remain the most hated asset class. recently there has been talk of a bubble in bonds - usually when this type of talk starts, the market in question still has some way to go. that said, although i can't bring myself to be negative on bonds yet, i acknowledge that all the welfare/warfare nation governments of the West are in principle bankrupt. they will all default one day, whether outright or via inflation. so those holding governmment bonds must not lose sight of this fact, and always keep a wary eye on a number of signposts (i have agreed with David Rosenberg's analysis of the situation except that i do not share his nonchalance about the government's total debt and the chances of it ever getting paid; in addition to this, the Fed under Bernanke is hell-bent on 'averting deflation', which means it will probably one day go one crucial step too far with its money printing). for instance, with Japan's savings rate having declined to a minuscule level, it is only a question of a relatively short time before Japan will have to face the choice of either paying higher interest rates to attract foreign funding or printing money to finance the deficit. my gut feeling is that this looming problem could be a 'tipping point' event for bond markets everywhere. another problem is the crisis in sovereign debt at the euro area's periphery. it is not over. in fact, it seems to be entering the next phase - CDS on Ireland's debt have already broken out to new crisis highs, and all the other usual suspects are playing catch-up. this crisis is a stark reminder that governments can indeed go bankrupt. the extent to which the EU is prepared to continue to attempt to bail these nations out will inter alia determine how quickly the crisis moves from the periphery to the center. all in all it seems possible to me that the bond market will first keep crushing the bears - of which there are still too many - and when it has accomplished that, it will turn around and crush the bulls. The all time low in the 10 year yield (made in 1942) is a mere 97 basis points away.

To: carranza2 who wrote (65732)	8/25/2010 7:08:53 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218194

i spend day time at hospital but am sleeping fine at home :0) i will pick up jack and mama this noon time from hospital for home, full security detail, big suv, tied-down carrying contraption, cap, socks, whatever. shall also have sight of hospital bill ;0) filipino ex-teacher great cook and nanny shall take day shift, together with mama. dedicated chinese specialist mid-wife shall cook special treats for mama, and take night shift. asia has its pluses :0) erita shall do whatever, and so far visiting hospital once per day after school and is absolutely good to and for jack, "oh, look at jack's little socks", "dada, i miss jack and mama" "dada, can i read jack another story"