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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (38967)	10/29/2010 12:32:29 PM
From: Grantcw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78468

Hello Spekulatius, Going back to some of our discussion before the September run on oil stocks, for example TOT. As the price of oil and gas change, do you modify your $15/oil and $1.5 for gas values for reserves? I still own TOT and am liking it long-term. In general, I'd like to add to TOT and other good long-term plays in the oil sector, but I'm hesitant here given the recent rise in oil stocks given the rise in Oil prices and the market in general. I think in the long-term oil is going up, but short-term I think there are various reasons to see it back in the 70's. So, I'm hoping to come back into oil stocks if that happens. That being said, I bought some NE this week and am at least considering other plays in the sector, but values are looking weaker than they were two months ago. Thoughts? Thanks, cwillyg

To: Spekulatius who wrote (38967)	11/26/2010 11:07:32 AM
From: Grantcw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78468

I've enjoyed reviewing the GEOI vs. TOT discussion from a few months ago. At the time, I was at a 5% position in GEOI and a 2% position in TOT as I felt GEOI had a better risk/reward than TOT. But, since the time of the discussion, it looks like GEOI is up around 40% while TOT is up around 10%. So, after some re-research during the last week, I sold my GEOI, upped my 2% TOT position to 5% and established a 5% E position also. My overall view is that TOT and E are both looking at low current and estimated p/e ratios as well as low value to proven reserves especially when factoring in their various other hard assets as you mention in the post I'm replying to. GEOI may have a good future, but I think at current valuations of both of the factors above, other companies look better right now. I realize I'm preaching to the choir here Spekulatius, but just thought I'd throw out my position changes and ideas. Thanks, cwillyg