Election 2010: California Governor
California Governor: Whitman (R) 48%, Brown (D) 40%
Thursday, August 26, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement
The tie is broken for now, with Republican Meg Whitman, coming off last weekend’s state GOP Convention, moving out to her best showing yet in the race to be the next governor of California.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California finds Whitman earning 48% support, while Democrat Jerry Brown picks up 40% of the vote. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
These new numbers move California from a Toss-Up to Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
Early this month, Brown was slightly ahead 43% to 41% in a contest that has been neck and neck since last September. Brown, currently the state’s attorney general, bounced briefly ahead immediately following the state Democratic Convention in April, but the race tightened again in June after Whitman's Republican primary win.
Prior to the latest numbers, Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, has earned 38% to 47% support in seven surveys back to February. Brown, in those same surveys, has captured 40% to 46% of the vote.
When leaners are included in the new totals, Whitman posts a 51% to 43% lead over Brown. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.
Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of those who favor Whitman say they are already certain how they will vote in November. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Brown’s supporters say the same.
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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in California was conducted on August 24, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Other data from this survey can be found at www.rasmussenreports.com/California.
Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina are now essentially tied in California’s U.S. Senate race, moving the state from Leans Democratic to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.
Ninety percent (90%) of California Republicans support Whitman, while Brown gets 75% of the vote from Democrats in the state. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican by 10 points.
Whitman is viewed Very Favorably by 19% of California voters and Very Unfavorably by 25%.
Twenty-five percent (25%) have a Very Favorable view of Brown, a longtime political figure in the state and former governor. However, 38% regard him Very Unfavorably.
Both candidates are well-known in the state, but at this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
Fifty percent (50%) of California voters favor the requirement in the new national health care law that every American must buy or obtain health insurance. Forty-seven percent (47%) oppose that requirement. This includes 32% who Strongly Favor it and 35% who are Strongly Opposed.
Nationally, most voters oppose the requirement, and a number of states are suing the federal government to prevent it from going into effect. Forty-four percent (44%) of voters in California favor their state suing to stop the requirement, but 37% oppose such a suit. Nineteen percent (19%) are undecided.
With California politicians still battling over one of the worst state budget problems in the country, just 26% of voters approve of the job GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is doing. Sixty-nine percent (69%) disapprove. Schwarzenegger is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In California during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Obama winning the state by a 61% to 34% margin. Obama won 61% to 37%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Kerry leading Bush in California 53% to 43%. Kerry won 54% to 44%.
In the 2006 California governor's race, Rasmussen polling showed Schwarzenegger defeating Phil Angelides 53% to 40%. Schwarzenegger won 56% to 39%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Dianne Feinstein defeating Richard Mountjoy 58% to 35%. Feinstein won 60% to 35%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president
Rasmussen Reports also has released recent polls on the 2010 governor's races in Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
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