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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sycamore who wrote (4878)	11/9/1997 2:35:00 PM
From: qdog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11888

You know, I'll say this just once. You have your opinion and I have mine. Is your's right and mine wrong? Don't know nor do I care. Like I tell my broker, it's my money, not yours. I'm not disappoint whatsoever what you do with your money. I'm glad that you spread it out like Lynch advocates. Hey, I'm working on a new dog biscuit......... care to invest???? I don't contend the world is ending. Where in these post do I suggest that? What you do have and it is worth considering, there is an errosion of wealth that is and has occurred. That damage will not be corrected in a week or two. It can take months. Compound that by missteps of government that could happen, in overreacting. If you look at Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand; there is war of words that could escalate into stupid policies, such as protectionism. Would that be good for global markets and growth? IMO, no. Have these markets and others seen the bottom yet; I frankly don't know, but I sure am going to preserve my gains and take a long, hard look at my porfolio and make appropriate adjustments. Will the World Bank and IMF be forced to prop currencies and markets to stabilize things, instead of using that money to build necessary infrastructure or projects over the next year or so? Are other markets being affected? Brazil is. In '87 you could have bot the venerable IBM at $175. In '97 it took that company that long to achieve that price again. We aren't talking about a company that is some light weight or hot IPO. We are talking a premier company. Yes the 73-74 bear market recover and then went down even further in 75, recovered and then went sideways into '82. Could you make money in it? Sure, but it depended on what you where in. Metals did damn good from 73 to 80 as did oil. Food stocks did fair. In the '80's I was in defense issues and out of oil. late 80's I shifted to high techs, especial PC related issues. Now I'm not sure they are the darlings they were once. There are stocks I've own since my first share purchased in 1970; T. Never once did I ever sell it, until they spun off. I sold the NCR and T, but hold the crown jewel LU. You probably will have to pry those shares out of my hand in my grave! As to oil, oil was in demand in '80. what happen after '84 wasn't pleasant. You had plenty of years of cheap and plentiful oil. There was no shortage. Demand didn't decrease, yet that price crumbled from $35 to $10. Yes it did recover, but not overnight. The reasoning of some like Rainwater, which I have subcribed to upto a point is world demand is on an increase. The biggest consumer, US, has been in love with bigger gas guzzlers. However, Thailand grew so rapidly that cars where crowding the streets and pollution so terrible that you needed a mask in Bangkok. Today, cars are being repossessed and the traffic is manageable. That's just Thailand. It's occurring in other places. Yet there is no shortage of oil. Saudi could produce 2 mil more tomorrow by turning a value. Saddam could be assassinated tomorrow and nearly 3 mil/day will be on the market in short order. Same with Libya. I'm NOT saying there will be a stoppage in using oil, but the demand might not be growing at the pace that is being predicted. Shorting is something I don't do very often and with mixed results. Put options I do and probably because it forces me to be short term in ones perspective, due to fact they expire. Those results are better, but it's risky. Right now I do have OEX put's (do have some put's on my long stock positions, one reports earnings on Tuesday). I do play my individual stock's options as hedge against earning surprises, but rarely on naked side of stocks outside my portfolio, except in troubling times. We are in one of those periods short term, IMO. Again I'm not predicting some market crash of epic proportion or soup lines. I ain't that smart. I do think that until Asia markets settle down, there is some concern here with our markets for the next 6 months or so. Can I make some money on it? More precisely, can I at least perserve my bottomline or at least smoothout the gyrations? Until, worlds markets setle down, I'll not hesitate to use the tools available and at OUR disposal. If you think that is a prediction of ending world, that's your opinion. I'm only interested in having money to enjoy my retirement. In the history of the DOW is has average 10-12 % return per year. The past few years defy that. IMO, a deeper, longer term correction is a distinct possibility.