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To: Joseph Silent who wrote (65811)	8/29/2010 3:11:21 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Respond to of 217752

I'm thinking...

To: Joseph Silent who wrote (65811)	8/29/2010 4:49:22 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217752

"Is it even reasonable to expect that it can be done for some things?" What I would do: Use 1st Food and Agriculturals to create a model Then once I'd had the model, I would apply it for other resources. In the process of creating the 1st model -using official sources of raw data trends- I would devise a way to cross check it with the by-passed external "authorized sources" sources.

To: Joseph Silent who wrote (65811)	8/29/2010 5:03:24 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217752

Statistical tools of the trade highly developed for high-tech. Resources materials statistical tools of the trade underdeveloped = missed opportunities Investors missed big opportunity because they did not see the deviation from the parallel. Once you have a your Resources Materials model one could see: • Decoupling from parallel o If one discover a decoupling from parallel at an earliest stage, one can make a killing. o Take Potash, historically production grew slowly and in parallel with population increase. o Once it decoupled (change of consumption accelerated), Potash became sought after fertilizer. o Imagine if someone had seen the underlying drivers of accelerating consumption of Potash at the very earliest stage? Now necessary to devise Statistical tools of the trade specifically for material resources.