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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (7725)	11/9/1997 5:10:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

You're welcome Doug. My initial opinion of the 3 billion in 1999 was "yeah right and cows can fly". For a company of this size to grow from let's say 1.3 billion in 1997 to 3 billion in 1999 would equate to a growth rate of 52% CAGR over 2 years. Yeah in our dreams! Considering that Corrigan said 20% growth for 1998, taking this into account would mean 92% growth for 1999. Pipe-dream. Scott Black should check his math. The CAGR for standard cells is around 30% over the next 5 years. LSI should theoretically get a portion of this. However as 1996 and soon 1997 will show LSI has been growing slower than the average. Like what CSCO said in their earnings announcement if you are not growing faster than the average someone is growing faster than you - so that means you are losing market share - never a good thing for any company. Also LSI has about 50% MOS gate arrays and gate arrays are forecast to grow 9% a year for the next 5 years. (I've mentioned before that LSI should get the heck out the gate array market if they can - the competition is ferocious. In standard cells they at least have an IP advantage.) Assuming LSI maintains these rates I get 1.9 billion in 1999 as an "average" scenario. Right now LSI is underperforming the average! So how the heck anyone comes up with 3 billion only the Big Guy upstairs will know! Of course if it does happen the stock will be $200 in 1999. Yet "if" is a word that goes hand in hand with LSI. Just a tad frustrating to see such a quality company underperform so badly. Corrigan won't get his 2,000,000 bonus this year.