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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale J. who wrote (1458)	11/9/1997 6:26:00 PM
From: LK2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

My personal views on stocks are worth very little (as a basis for anyone else's investment decisions). I'm trying to be both honest and somewhat accurate. Most analysts and posters might or might not be honest (question--how can you rate their honesty when you have no real-world information to check their honesty against?). But you can, in hindsight, rate the accuracy of their predictions, whether the predictions were implicit or explicit. It's not clear to me what you are saying, when you write: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> What do you think about her views? As for me I always consider them, but never find them compelling enough to not invest in the PC technology stocks. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< I don't know if you mean CASE1.that you have studied Roxanne Googin the analyst for a long time, and still invest in PC technology stocks, CASE2. that you have heard bearish arguments from analysts on the PC technology sector for years now, and still invest in PC stocks. CASE1---- Personally, I've heard Roxanne Googin on TV a few times. I'm not that familiar with her or her views. My impression is that she can be positive or negative on different tech sectors and stocks. She is not a perma-bear on tech stocks. I can't tell you how accurate her recommendations/predictions have been. CASE2----- As far as bearish arguments on tech stocks or PC stocks or the market, you can always hear negative arguments going back 5 years or ten years or 20 years. If you read Barrons, Alan Abelson is as close to a perma-bear (on the stock market in general) as anyone I've ever read. As far as accuracy, my impression is that if you either ignored what Alan Abelson said about the general stock market, or used him as a contrary indicator, you would have made a lot of money in the stock market. I've read Barron's over 17 years now (off and on), and I don't remember Alan Abelson ever being positive on the stock market. He could have been, and my memory is far from clear on what he actually said over the years, but I can't recall a single time when he ever advised his readers to invest or buy stocks (the general market. He often highlights specific stocks that unnamed sources are pushing as longs or shorts) -Larry

To: Dale J. who wrote (1458)	11/9/1997 9:10:00 PM
From: Candle stick	Respond to of 9256

Following is a link to an article which summarizes an interview with tech analyst Roxanne Googin. It explains the collapse in Western Digital earnings and relates directly to the Magneto Resistive (MR) disk head industry, and JMAR cbs.marketwatch.com. The important excerpt comes at the end where she explains that Western Digital has " ....been slow to migrate over to magneto resistive [heads]. Their head supplier, Read-Rite, is not giving them good-quality yields on the high end components that they need to make the transition. Quantum has bought the effective worldwide capacity (all of which is coming out of Japan at this point from TDK and Yamaha), and so on top of the secular decline, they have not executed as well as Quantum on the MR transition. Quantum is therefore gaining share." Quantum has bought the worldwide capacity! Western Digital is suffering because amoung other things they have been slow to convert to MR ! This would seem to bode well for JMAR and their new mirage system which is used in the manufacture of MR heads, no? I am no expert, but it seems that for Disk drive competitors to stay competitive they must move to this technology quickly, yet there is no supply to be had. growth for the Mirage system should be explosive going forward, in my humble opinion. Reference the link below to learn more about JMAR's Mirage system. jmar.com And this link to see that it has now become the #1 priority of JMAR: jmar.com Best of luck to all, comments welcome.......;^)

To: Dale J. who wrote (1458)	11/9/1997 11:59:00 PM
From: William T. Katz	Respond to of 9256

Frankly, I think she is being very short-sighted. What about digital video? Downloads off the internet? Digital photography? All of those things are driving for large, faster disk drives. In particular, I think digital video editing and digital photos will be the rage, and with Gates' wonderful bloatware, we never get enough gigabytes. Well, maybe when we can easily hold 6 hours worth of MPEG-2 quality video together with all software for OS and space for phone messages/etc ... so maybe around 20 gigabyte level we'll need some more innovation to drive more capacity growth.