BIOX - 1998 E.P.S. $2.28 - Qtrl P&L
Version 8
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1997: - E.P.S. - 4th Qtr. Estimate
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Investors Business Daily $0.01
JM $0.17
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Revenues:
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AHP - USA $5,000
Foreign $2,000
License Fees $1,000 (AHP)
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Total Revenues $8,000
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Q4 E.P.S. $.17
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YR E.P.S $1.36
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Year 1998:
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From BIOX 1997 Sept 10Q
$6.0 LICENSE PAYMENT FROM AHP in 4th qtr.
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Estimating ....
$5.0 LICENSE PAYMENT FROM COLLAGEN in 2nd qtr.
for Hylaform.
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1998 Quarterly P&L and Assumptions
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Products/Status:
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FDA Approved - 8/13/97
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Sy3= Synvisc @35% of AHP Retail $-Osteoarthritis-Liquid prosthesis
Sy1= Synvisc @100% of AHP Retail $-Osteoarthritis-Liquid prosthesis
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FDA Expected Approval 12/31/97
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Hf = Hylaform -Facial Wrinkles-Hylan device
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NOT FDA APPROVED
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Hs = Hylashield -Eye drops -Protect Eyes
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Note:sold commercially in Canada/Italy
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Major P&L Assumptions:
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1998 Revenues from Synvisc (USA)
Distributor:American Home Products (AHP)
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Annual AHP @ Retail $135,000,000
Annual Price (2 Treatments/yr) 1,000
BIOX % of AHP .35
BIOX $ Gross Rev $47,250,000
Note:
1 treatment = 3 injections of Synvisc.
Cost of 1 treatment is est. @ $500.
1 treatment est. to last 6 months.
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Implied about AHP Sales Effort for 1998:
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Total Osteoarthritis Population 15,600,000
Total Target Patient Population 7,000,000
1998 Patients Treated 135,000
1998 Treated as % of Target 1.93%
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Biomatrix (BIOX) - 1998 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1998
===================================================================
Pr Loc Dist
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Sy3 USA (AHP) 8,000 10,000 13,000 16,000 47,000
Sy3 NON-USA (AHP) 500 800 1,200 1,600 4,100
Sy3 France (Boe Ing) 300 300 300 300 1,200
Sy3 Canada (RPR) 400 400 400 400 1,600
Sy3 Sweden (Roche) 200 200 200 200 800
Sy3 Isr./FE (Bayer AG) 100 100 100 100 400
Sy3 Italy (Recdati) 75 75 75 75 300
Sy1 England (Biox) 25 50 200 200 475
Sy1 China (Biox) 25 50 100 100 275
Sy1 Norway (Biox) 1 1 1 1 4
Sy1 Finland (Biox) 1 1 1 1 4
Sy1 Switzer (Biox) 1 1 1 1 4
Hf USA (Collagen) 0 700 700 700 2,100
Hf NON-USA (Collagen) 400 400 400 400 1,600
Hs ITAL (Far Farm) 30 30 30 30 120
Other (Biox) 200 200 200 200 800
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total Product Sales 10,258 13,308 16,908 20,308 60,782
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Memo:Seq. $ 3,050 3,600 3,400
Memo:Seq. % N/A 29% 27% 20%
Memo:97 - $ 1,902 1,841 1,754 N/A
Memo:Yr/Yr % 439% 623% 864% N/A
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Milestone Fees
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* BIOX Sept 97 10Q
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AHP - 6,000 4TH qtr 98
Bayer - 2,000 in 98
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AHP (from BIOX 10-Q) 0 0 0 6,000 6,000
Bayer AG 0 0 1,000 1,000 2,000
Boehringer Ingelheim 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 4,000
Collagen-Hylaform USA 0 5,000 0 0 5,000
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total Fees 1,000 6,000 2,000 8,000 17,000
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total Net Revenues 11,258 19,308 18,908 28,308 77,782
================== ====== ======= ======= ======= =======
Product GM (Avg. %) .65 .65 .65 .65 .65
Product GM $ 6,668 8,650 10,990 13,200 39,508
License GM $ 1,000 6,000 2,000 8,000 17,000
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total GM $ 7,668 14,650 12,990 21,200 56,508
=================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
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R & D
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Hylagel/Sur.Adhes/Ph1 600 625 650 675 2,550
Hylasine/EarNose/Ph1 550 575 600 625 2,350
Hylasol/Opth Sur/Ph1 200 225 250 275 950
Other 300 300 300 300 1,200
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total R&D 1,650 1,725 1,800 1,875 7,050
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Memo:1997 (est.) 1,380 1,426 1,532 1,600 5,938
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
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SG&A
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Normal 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 9,400
Sy England (Biox) 350 300 250 200 1,100
Sy China (Biox) 350 300 250 200 1,100
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total SG&A 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 11,600
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Memo:1997 (est.) 1,409 1,883 1,969 2,150 7,411
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total R&D/SG&A 4,550 4,625 4,700 4,775 18,650
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Inc. from Operations 3,118 10,025 8,290 16,425 37,858
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Int.Income- Net (4%) 195 218 290 350 1,053
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
EBT 3,313 10,243 8,580 16,775 38,911
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Tax Prov. (%) .30 .30 .30 .30 .30
Tax Prov. ($) 994 3,073 2,574 5,033 11,673
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
EAT 1998 2,319 7,170 6,006 11,743 27,238
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
EAT 1997 2,546A 1,218A 9,788A 2,053E 15,605E
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
E.P.S 1998 .19 .60 .50 .99 2.28
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
E.P.S 1997 .23A .11A .85A .17E 1.36E
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
98 - Shares Out 11,900 11,900 11,900 11,900 11,900
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
Cash/Mrt.Sec-BOP 19,500 21,819 28,989 34,995 -
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
PE * E.P.S. = Share Price
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
20 45.00
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
25 57.00
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30 68.00
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35 79.00
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40 91.00
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45 102.00
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50 114.00
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Postings Comments:
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Negatives:
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(1) pwwknk Posts #165/#167
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Indicated that there probably IS a problem
in doctors financing Synvisc.
The Math:
$500 * 20 treatments = $10,000 worth of Inventory.
No one is sure how AHP will handle this issue.
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(2) My Observation:
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Small window to sell Synvisc in 4th qtr.
Allowing 2 weeks for vacations,parties,etc.
leaves 4 REAL WEEKS of selling time.
Consequently,
Q198 is real SELL-IN qtr. ($8,000)
Q298 is real SELL-THRU qtr. ($10,000)
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Positives:
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Posts #167 and #169/#170
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(1)The AHP sales meeting appears to have been favorable
towards Synvisc.
(2) A post from Motley talked to how someone's mother
had used Synvisc successfully.
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Notes:
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A.Amendment 5/29/97 increase auth. shares
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TO 60,000,000
FROM 20,000,000
Don't know if ratified.
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B.Ownership 3/1/97
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Endre A. Balazs 2,161,519 20%
Janet I. Denlinger 1,099,085 10%
H. Stuart Campbell 61,248
Rory B. Riggs 600,000 6%
Others 54,000
Shares Outstanding 6/30/97 11,158,098
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C. Distribution Agreements
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Boehringer Ingelheim - 12/18/96
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Fee:$8.0 million
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Countries:
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France,Algeria,Morocco
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Req. Biomedical Specialists:5
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Estimated License Payment Schedule
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1996 -0-
1997 -0-
1998 4
1999 4
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Wyeth-Ayerst (AHP) - 2/10/97
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Fee:$23.0 million
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Countries:
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USA
Germany,Austria,Greece,Spain,Portuagal
Poland,Hungry,Romania,Bulgaria,Check
Turkey,Saudi Arabia,Egypt,Syria,Jordan
Req. Biomedical Specialists:Yes(# unknown)
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Estimated License Payment Schedule
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1996 -0-
1997 16
1998 7
1999 -0-
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Bayer AG - 4/29/97
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Fee:$5.0 million
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Countries:
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Israel,Australia,New Zeland,Taiwan,Singapore
Indonesia,Thailand,Maylaysia
Req. Biomedical Specialists:2
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Estimated License Payment Schedule
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1996 -0-
1997 3
1998 2
1999 -0-
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Synvisc Competitors
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Company :ANIK
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Product :OrthoVisc
Development :Phase 3 - PMA expected Dec 97.
For Sale :Europe - Turkey - Canada
News :Signed deal with Grupo Ferrer Internacional, S.A.,
for Spain and Portuagal:
:Coming out with a secondary
offering sometime in Dec 97/early 98 3,000,000 shs
Needs :USA Distributor (Bayer?)
More Info :Contact:Edurado on the ANIK thread
Followsed by :Cruttenden Roth:
William R. Prather M.D. & Jeffrey Schottler
at (303) 595-3377
Advantages :Post #25 from ANIK - by Eduardo Canto
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The advantage of Orthovisc will be
(as long as the ph III proves us right)
the lack of immune reaction against the product.
Healon which is natural HA like Orthovisc
had an adverse reaction rate of 1% per injection
compared to 2.7% for Synvisc,
at three injections Synvisc
had an adverse reaction rate of 7% per knee.
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Company :Sanofi/Orthologic
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Product :Hyalgan
Development :Completed
For Sale :Europe
News :
Needs :
More Info :Contact:Edurado on the ANIK thread
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In USA:Post 19 on ANIK thread
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In addition to Synvisc, the only other
licensed HA product in the US is Hyalgan
(marketed by Sanofi and Orthologic under
license from an Italian Company called Fidia).
Being a natural HA product already in
use for eye surgery, Orhtovisc has a
lower risk of allergic reaction which have been
noted in people treated with Synvisc which has
crosslinked HA not found in nature.
Don't know when it is coming to USA
but it is coming.
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Biomatrix - Hylaform
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Sold by Collegen
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From Collagen 10Q - Sept 97
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June 1996, Company entered a
distribution ("Biomatrix") ... Hylaform(R) ...
paid $5.0 million ...
for rights ... outside United States
and
**** option *****
to purchase the
**** United States *****
distribution rights in future...
Company launched Hylaform gel
in international markets fiscal 1997.
Company required to pay a
transfer price
for Hylaform gel shipments,
as well as
**** royalty *****
on all
of Company's facial injectable product sales in
**** countries *****
where
**** Hylaform gel is sold *****
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Collagen 10K - Sept 97
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Hyaluronan
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plays role skin's hydration and viscoelasticity.
Over time, hyaluronan in skin decreases,
contributing to aging appearance of skin.
Due to unique cross-linking to hylan B,
Hylaform gel has a higher water content
and greater elastic properties than
other hyaluronan-derived products.
hyaluronan neither tissue-specific
nor species-specific,
can be used
**** without ***** a skin test.
Hylaform gel has a
chemical structure
completely **** different *****
from bovine collagen and
not contain bovine protein.
Hylaform gel
allows same day treatment
of facial wrinkles and scars,
giving patients and doctors
an additional treatment option.
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COMPETITION.
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Company is aware of one company in Europe
markets a hylauronic acid-based product called
**** Restylane *****
competitive
with Hylaform gel.
Regards,
John McCarthy |
